4-0

Notre Dame's defense stole the show Saturday night as the Irish outlasted Denard Robinson 13-6.  With six turnovers on the stat sheet, it was easy to hand out this weeks awards.


HEISMAN BABY

MANTI TE'O - 8 tackles (1 TFL), 2 INT - For the second time in as many weeks, Te'o dominated in the national spotlight, leading an opportunistic defensive squad (6 points, 3 sacks, 6 turnovers).  If Te'o keeps up this level of play, he may very well find him in the Heisman hunt.


ROCK SOLID

BENNETT JACKSON - 9 tackles, INT, fumble recovery - Jackson played his best game to date as a defensive stopper for the Irish secondary.  He was everywhere on the field and has been a pleasant surprise for the Irish at a position where that was their main weakness.

DANNY SPOND - 7 tackles, forced fumble - Fresh off an injury, Spond did not disappoint.  He came up with some big plays for the Irish D, including forcing Michigan QB Denard Robinson's 5th turnover of the game.

ZEKE MOTTA - 6 tackles - Motta is the veteran of the Irish secondary and has proven his worth not only with play, but also his leadership over a youthful secondary.  Having taken a lot of heat in the past and winding up in the category below, it is refreshing to see Motta find success.


GET HIM OUTTA THERE

EVERETT GOLSON - 3 of 8 for 30 yards, 2 INTs - Golson finds himself in this category simply because was taken out by Kelly in the 2nd quarter in favor of Rees.  While the redzone INT was simply stupid (throw it away!), I'm still huge on Golson, especially as our starter.


WAIT, WHAT?

Irish are 4-0 and ranked #10!!  For the first time in a decade, no where in the media chatter do you hear about Notre Dame's coach on the hot seat after the first four weeks of the season.  Rather it's about BCS bowls and gasp...National Championships?  In the words of Corso, "Not so fast my friend."  Let's take this one week at time.

Week 4 Outlook

Week 3 was a perfect example as to why I do not bet on college football games.  My “lock” of the week (THE Ohio State -17) nearly lost outright.  I guess that serves me right for calling it a “lock”.  Stupid.  And I was a dreadful 1-6 (2-5 against the spread).  I was gladly wrong about the Irish, who played perhaps their best game of the Brian Kelly Era.  Florida followed through, however, and dominated the second half against an overrated Tennessee team.  

In fact, the Gators have been extremely impressive through three weeks, hence their #2 rating in my P&E poll.  They have a gimme this week against a dreadful Kentucky Wildcat team.  However, there are two other intriguing SEC East matchups this week.  UGA, my preseason #1, has not quite looked like a #1 in 2012 (I addressed this in the comments to the ratings update article yesterday).  They should get a test from a pesky Vandy team, in Athens, this weekend.  Despite the two losses, I still believe in the Commodores.  In fact, I think the two losses could play in Vandy’s favor this weekend.  I still like Bulldogs to win; however, Vandy should cover the 16 point spread.

The second matchup features the newly minted Tigers3, visiting the South Carolina Gamecocks.  South Carolina would appear to have the edge in this game; however, I again think this one will be closer than Vegas would have you believe.  Both teams’ quarterbacks are a little banged up; however, I expect both to play.  I really like the way Mizzou responded to their letdown against UGA in week 2.  Without their best player, they were able to dispatch one of the biggest surprises in this early season.  Meanwhile, the Gamecocks were taken to the wire by a pesky Vanderbilt team and then dispatched two lesser opponents without batting an eye.  I like USCe in this matchup because it’s in Columbia.  But Mizzou should cover.  

The VIP matchup, this weekend, is the only one to feature two teams in the top 10 of P&E Ratings.  Michigan remains in the top 10, largely due to their lofty preseason rating (#3 overall).  They have yet to perform to this level in 2012.  However, they have dynamic talent at various positions, namely QB with Denard Robinson.  “Shoelaces” has made a career of decimating ND.  Just when it looked like the Irish had figured out the Denard puzzle in 2011, he unleashed probably the best 4th quarter to ever be played against an Irish defense on his way to leading the Wolverines to a miraculous win.  Heartbroken ND fans still have a hard time watching/talking/thinking about this dark moment.  Through 3 games, ND has been considerably more impressive in 2012.  Though, that hardly means anything, given the history of this game.  Talent generally does not disappear.  It’s not always fully utilized; however, it can show itself at any given moment.  This is why this game scares the crap out of me.  The key to this game will be when Michigan has the ball, whether ND’s front 3 or 4 can get to Denard.  If ND gets consistent pressure without a blitz, as it has been able to do so far in 2012, then ND should be able to stop Michigan enough times.   I think our offense is capable of scoring 20-30 points on Michigan’s defense.  The key is keeping the Wolverines below, or on the lower end of that range.  Final prediction:  Irish win a close one.  

My Week 4 Picks:  I’m doing this a little differently, now.  I’m no longer limiting myself to only “upset” picks, as that gives me a significantly lower pool to play with.  I’m going to pick all seven games against the spread.  If you follow our twitter feed, which I can almost guarantee you don’t, then you were privy to our first pick of the week.

1) BYU +8 over Boise State (already a success – much better start this week)

2) Marshall -3 at Rice

3) Wyoming -1.5 at Idaho

4) San Jose State +2.5 at San Diego State

5) Missouri +10.5 at South Carolina

6) Vanderbilt +14.5 at Georgia

7) New Mexico +6.5 at New Mexico State

Yes, that last pick is correct. I'm actually picking Boob Davies' team with the points. I'm in disbelief, too. 

Status Update: Week 3 P&E (Power & Efficiency) Ratings

If you have read any of our preview articles, you probably noticed a reference to P&E ratings.  This is a method, created to evaluate teams relative to one another.  This rating system is subjectively based on the premise that a team’s ability to defeat another team is a direct result of their ability to move the ball and prevent its opponent from doing the same.  A team’s ability to move the ball (and alternatively, their ability to prevent their opponent from moving the ball) is further measured by how quickly, or efficiently, this can be accomplished. 

I know this probably sounds complicated, but it is actually a very simple, rudimentary tool that, within a range, has been nearly 80% accurate this season, to date.  Please note that this is not a merit-based ranking system (i.e. teams are not ranked based on win/losses or margin of victory).  It is, however, adjusted for the strength of each team’s opponent. 

Our preseason top 25 was a mixture of a team’s ending 2011 P&E Rating and a percentage of production returning, all compared to each team’s schedule.  The result was a projected number of wins, losses, and matchups within a certain range, which I deemed to be “toss-ups”.  So, I derived a poll, based on projected wins and what I subjectively believed to be a team’s ability to replace lost production.  For example, I believed that Alabama was in a much better position to replace their lost production than Boise State.  Thus, Alabama received a much higher relative ranking (relative to their preseason P&E Rating), than Boise.

All of this is to say that this rating system is not comparable to any merit-based ranking, nor is it even comparable to our very own preseason top 25, which was done as fun exercise and nothing more. 

An important note about this week’s update of our ratings is that the 2012 sample size is entirely too small to use, by itself.  Since I exclude games played against non-FBS opponents (about 38% of all games played, to date), some teams only have one game of relevant data in 2012.  This is obviously not enough, from which I (or anyone) should draw conclusions.  Therefore, the preseason P&E Ratings are incorporated into this update.  The preseason ratings will phase out of each team’s rating, when enough games have been played. 

Our full P&E Ratings can be seen on the right side of this page, underneath the schedules.  However, I want to point out a couple of things that caught my eye. 

·         NEWS FLASH:  ALABAMA IS RIDICULOUSLY GOOD.  Shocking, I know.  Again the Tide, comfortably sit atop my P&E Ratings.  From 2011 to 2012, no team lost more ability than Alabama.  I am amazed at how easily they can replace that kind of talent. 

·         Through two weeks Florida has been downright impressive.   They were my only pick to follow-through in Week 3.  And it’s clear why. 

·         Despite a tough week 2 loss to UCLA, Nebraska has been very good.  Currently the only offense playing better than the Cornhuskers belongs to Dana Holgerson’s West Virginia Mountaineers.

·         Stanford’s rating is driven by their defense.  As you would expect, offensively the Cardinal is not there yet.

·         I am very high on FSU.  Their low ranking is due to them only playing one, below average, FBS team, so far.  They will likely climb significantly after this week.

·         It appears that I undersold South Carolina, UCLA, and Mississippi State.  All three of these teams have played above their preseason ratings and into the P&E Ratings’ Top 25. 

·         Through 3 weeks the most impressive teams (in terms of performance, relative to their preseason ratings):  Texas Tech, San Jose State, Arizona, Arizona State, and Purdue.

·         Through 3 weeks the most disappointing teams (in terms of performance, relative to their preseason ratings):  Southern Miss, UNC, Oklahoma (only 1 game), Arkansas, and Virginia Tech.

Remember the Spartans

Back by popular demand (not really) is the beginning of our annual Hackademy Awards.  Awards will be handed out after each game (apologies for missing the first two weeks), with accumulated tallies total at the end of the season.  Without further adieu:


HEISMAN BABY

MANTI TE'O - 12 tackles (1 TFL), fumble recovery - Playing with a heavy heart, Te'o dominated,  leading an inspired defensive group (3 points, 4 sacks) from start to finish.  While his stat line is impressive, the story can truly be told through the stats of Heisman hopeful (or previous hopeful) Le'Veon Bell - 19 carries for 77 yards.


ROCK SOLID

EVERETT GOLSON - 14 of 32 for 178 yards and a TD (plus a rushing TD) - While the stats are not off the charts, Golson did enough for the win, and furthermore did not turn the ball over.  Hard to argue against the fact that he is 3-0 as a starter.

BEN TURK - 8 punts for an average of 42.4 yards with 4 inside the 20 - Turk was busy all night, but finished mistake free.  In a game featuring two strong defenses, field position was a crucial factor and Turk delivered.

CIERRE WOOD - 10 rushes for 56 yards - It was a welcoming sight to see Wood back on the field.  His quickness was utilized at an opportune time to propel the Irish to key first downs late in the game.

JOHN GOODMAN - 1 rec. for 36 yards , TD - The 5th year senior made his career highlight catch while being interfered with early in the 1st quarter and it proved to be the winning score.


GET HIM OUTTA THERE

PRINCE SHEMBO - 9 tackles (2 tfl), 1 sack - While Shembo played a great game defensively, his (back-to-back) personal foul penalty(ies) were simply stupid.


WAIT, WHAT?

Remember when the ball popped off the foot of TJ Jones up into the air, was picked off by a MSU defender and returned for a touchdown, spiraling the Irish into defeat?  While it did not exactly happen that way, ghosts of Irish pasts seem to look favorably on this Irish team as the breaks, particularly that one, seemed to go our way for once.

Week 3 Outlook

Well, Week 2 was a bit less forgiving, for our preseason poll.  Oklahoma State, UNC, and Vanderbilt are all determined to make me look like an idiot.  USF one-upped them by throwing away last night’s contest against the Scarlet Knights.  5 turnovers?!  Really?!  That’s some Bulls’ crap!  Do you see what I did there?

A couple of games did go our way, however.  We finished 4-3 on our upset picks.  Louisiana Monroe and Utah State made us look very good, but Kent State and Illinois did not help us out much.  Additionally, both Georgia and Missouri looked strong in their game.  Missouri looked very impressive, until Jarvis Jones single-handedly took over the game.  I still think the Tigers³ will surprise some of their new SEC foes, this year.  Our exclusion of the Wisconsin Badgers from our preseason top 25 looks fair, at this point.  I think they are at risk of dropping to 1 and 2, as a very dangerous Utah State comes into to Madison.   Similarly, our exclusion of Nebraska from the preseason top 25 also looks like a good play. 

The two biggest games, this week, are obvious.  I covered one, the ND vs. MSU matchup, yesterday in our “A Rare Opportunity” piece.  The other is the marquee SEC game of the week.  No, not Bama at Arkansas, as that will be not be much of a game (if the rumors of Wilson being held out, are true).  The Florida Gators travel to Knoxville, in an attempt to knockout the Vols for the eighth straight time.  Surprisingly, the Gators enter this weekend as the underdog.  I think the Vols success, to date, might just be fools’ gold.  I do not think much of NC State and Georgia State is merely an FCS team with a whopping 4 years of existence.  The Gators got a tough win in College Station, a week ago, and I think we’ll see more of the same, this week.  On to the picks…

Week 3 Picks:

To Win:

Florida at Tennessee

Utah State at Wisconsin

North Carolina at Louisville

To Cover:

Arkansas State +24 at Nebraska

Colorado State +10.5 at San Jose State

Miami (OH) +20.5 at Boise State

Week 3 Lock: 

Ohio State -17 vs Cal

Cal is a terrible team, and Ohio State has looked better than expected, which is a big statement.  This one is money in the bank. 

A Rare Opportunity

This weekend’s competition against Michigan State affords Brian Kelly and his Notre Dame Team a rare opportunity.  Expectations wills always be lofty for the University of Notre Dame, whether that be on the football field or in the classroom.  I think it is fair to say that sometimes these expectations are less than reasonable.  As a lifelong supporter of the University of Notre Dame, I understand this is part of our DNA.  This contributes to what makes our university unique.  It also can be the source of unwarranted scrutiny and ire. 

Anyone who watched the contest against Purdue would agree that the Irish struggled, against what is believed to be an inferior opponent.  I did expect this, to an extent; however, even I suggested that the Boilermakers did not have the talent to complete the upset.  I do think I was wrong, though.  Purdue could have walked out of ND Stadium with a win; however, they did not.  So, our record is now 2 wins and 0 losses, the same as it would have been with a 100 point margin of victory.  The discourse and vitriol spewed on various Notre Dame “fan” boards, across the interwebs, might convince you that we, in fact, lost that game and Kelly now has the program headed in the wrong direction. 

As ridiculous of an overreaction this is, an opportunity now arises for Kelly.  He has a chance to lead an Irish football team into a game, which they are not expected to win.  All 8 CBS experts picked Sparty, with 7 of the 8 picking them to cover, as well.  Phil Steele, who is in my opinion the most respected and accurate college football analyst, has also picked MSU.  The line for this game opened at ND +3.5 (meaning MSU is favored by 3.5 points) and has since been pushed to ND +6.  This indicates that the vast majority of people are betting on the Spartans to win by more than the proscribed line.  Adam Kramer, of KegsnEggsBlog.com (@KegsnEggs), indicated that 87% of all bets have taken MSU.  This is obviously an overwhelming majority. 

How rare is this?  In 2011, ND was favored in all but two games.  No big deal, you say.  Consider this, ND’s 2011 schedule featured 3 top 10 teams, 2 additional top 20 teams, and 3 additional bowl teams.  You mean to tell me that ND was favored to beat all but two of those teams?!  Rare (and somewhat irrational), indeed.

A game featuring two very evenly matched opponents, is typically not this one-sided in terms of predictions.  It would probably not shock most Irish fans if we won this contest, but it would surely shock some without vested rooting interest.  I have gone on record, back in our ND Football Prospectus, as saying this will be a loss.  And two games into the season, I am sticking with this assessment; however, I do think the Irish are every bit as talented and capable, as the Spartans.  In fact, my preseason p&e ratings ranked the Irish exactly one spot ahead of MSU.  The intangibles are what drive me to my assumption. 

Both teams are very evenly matched on both sides of the ball.  On offense, however, I think I would rather take my chances with a senior (academically, RS JR) starting at home versus a sophomore (RS Frosh) starting his first true road contest.  I love Everett Golson and think he is a future star on the college football landscape; however, it would be unfair to expect him to not make mistakes under these conditions.  I think we will make one or two more mistakes than MSU, which will directly lead to our defeat. 

So, go ahead and throw me into the doubter pile with all the others.  My name is, in fact, Thomas – yeah, that’s a Bible reference).  I would be happy to be wrong about this one.  And please note that my outlook on this team, and especially the ND program, is far from grim.  This is just more of a compliment to MSU.  I think very highly of their coach, and their 2012 team.  If the Irish win on Saturday, this will be a huge statement, and it will likely have significant implications on the national landscape of college football, this season.  And despite my prediction, this opportunity has me more excited than any other in a long, long time.

Week 2 Outlook

Let us start Week 2 with an apology for missing our Week 1 preview.  We could always go back and add it, and while it might be extremely accurate, it would probably not be of much value, now.  So, let’s just go ahead and sink our teeth into what should be a juicy week 2.

Anyone who read our preseason poll articles is aware that Ohio was our highest-rated non-BCS team.  So, the “upset”, of Penn State over the weekend, should not come as much of a surprise.  Also, in our response to comments on our blog, we did pick Alabama to win over Michigan, despite ranking the Wolverines higher, which is a result of a down year in the B1G.  Florida, Virginia Tech, and Michigan State all looked shaky in wins; however, the only other NDftB Preseason Top 25 team to lose was our No. 22 team, Vanderbilt.  The ‘Dores dropped a close one to our preseason No. 34 team, South Carolina.  I expect Vandy to bounce back in a big way at Northwestern tomorrow. 

There are two matchups this week with big implications on our preseason poll:  Georgia (our title pick) at Missouri and UCF at Ohio State.  To say I’m a little nervous about our title favorite this weekend, is like saying I’d be a little happy to win the lottery.  Mizzou fans have touted this as the biggest game in Missouri football history.  That alone, scares me.  Add to that, that I think Missouri is an extremely talented and underrated football team, and this could spell disaster for UGA.  I will not go so far, to pick the Tigers³ , but I’d be shocked if this one does not go to the wire. 

I do think the Buckeyes should be worried, however.  Central Florida probably does not inspire opponents as much as an SEC foe would, but Ohio State could meet the same outcome if they do not take this game seriously.  Again, I’ll shy away from picking the upset, but I do like the Golden Knights to cover. 

As for our beloved Irish, I could not be happier with the opening game against the perennially under-valued and under-appreciated Midshipmen.  Golson looked good for a first-time starter, the lines were dominant, and no one was injured.  It was an overall great day for the Irish.  I think we will start to come back down to earth against the Boilermakers.  Purdue will be improved from the team the Irish trounced a year ago.  I do not think they are capable of an upset, but I expect an ugly game from over-confident Notre Dame team.  Final verdict, ND wins by less than two TDs. 

Week 2 Upset Picks:

To Win:

South Florida at Nevada

Illinois at Arizona State

Kent State at Kentucky

To Cover:

UCF +18.5 at Ohio State

Utah State +7 over Utah

UTEP +8.5 at Ole Miss

Louisiana Monroe +30.5 at Arkansas