2012 Notre Dame Football Prospectus

by Thomas, contributing editor

You can’t know where you’re going until you know where you’ve been…


2011 was a disappointing year for Notre Dame Football, based on its lofty preseason expectations. Most of the Irish faithful expected double digit wins and a trip to the BCS. Well, an 0-2 start essentially derailed what should have been a promising season before it began. The Irish surged to 8-3, with the only hiccup being at home, under the lights, against an inspired and under-valued Trojan squad. Losing steam, and health, the Irish dropped their final two games: a one-sided match-up with powerhouse, Stanford, and a heart-breaker to FSU, a game seemingly dominated by the Irish for the first three quarters.

On paper, the Irish were an extremely strong team, who could’ve matched up with almost any team in the country, finishing 15th in my final power poll [This essentially measures a team’s ability to move the ball against their opponent and prevent their opponent from moving them ball against them]. The real downfall for ND, was their lack of explosiveness. This goes hand-in-hand with the -15 turnover margin, which is the single biggest culprit in no less than 3 of the Irish’s 5 losses.

As indicated by their final location in the power poll, ND was able to move the ball and stop its opponents. However, on offense a lack of explosiveness required an unreasonable amount of consistency in execution, in order for the Irish to put points on the board. This is best illustrated by ND’s red zone efficiency, which was a paltry 77.08% in 2011, good for 88th in the country. The blueprint for slowing down ND’s offense was drawn up by the 4th week of the season, when a Pitt defense frustrated ND’s offense all game long. Rushing only 3 or 4 all game, Pitt was able to drop 7 or 8 into coverage and double Floyd, without having to worry about being beaten deep. Pitt crowded the short and intermediate routes, which were the only realistic options for Tommy Rees.

In this game ND had four drives of more than 10 plays, only one resulted in points for ND, the 11 play 85 yard game winning TD drive. ND’s only other points resulted from a 79 TD run by Jonas Gray. A stifling performance from ND’s defense provided ND with a crucial win on the road, allowing ND to claw back to .500. This game is the perfect illustration of what, I consider, was the biggest flaw with ND on offense, in 2011.

On the other side of the ball, ND was more solid; however, they had issues, as well. Actually, defensively ND finished ranked 31st in the power poll, while a more respectable 21st on offense. This is largely due to ND’s conservative defensive philosophy. It was probably obvious to those who watched ND in 2011, they played a very conservative brand of football. Rarely blitzing and allowing plenty of cushion to the opponents’ playmaking WRs, the ND defense was predicated on not giving up the big “explosive” plays. And they were very good at it. Finishing 3rd, behind only Alabama and Penn St, in my final defensive explosiveness poll [This takes the number of explosive plays given up by ND – which subjectively consists of runs of 20+ yards, passes of 30+ yards, punt returns of 20+, and kick-off returns of 40+ yards – divided by the total defensive plays]. Conversely, the offense finished a meager 61st.

The real issue for the ND defense was their inability to force turnovers. Their defensive philosophy is basically a bet that the opposing offense cannot put together enough long methodical drives to score enough points. This is similar to how most opponents defended ND’s offense in 2011. The major difference is that our opponents did not have to worry about the big pass because we were not equipped to deliver a big play through the air. So, they were only forced to prevent a big play on the ground, a much easier task. As illustrated above, it is much harder to score without explosive plays. However, it can be done.

The 2011 USC game is the blueprint for how to dissect the ND defense. During this game USC did not register a single explosive play, on offense. Their longest play was a 25 yard reception by Robert Woods, hardly game changing. However, USC managed five drives of 9 or more plays. These drives resulted in only 10 of their 31 points, however, the real damage was their ability to possess the ball and control field position. On the flip side, ND generated 2 explosive plays in this game, resulting in 14 points for ND. However, this production was offset by another kind of explosive play, turnovers. USC benefited, to the tune of 14 points from ND turnovers. Conversely, ND was unable to force any turnovers. Thus USC, with their ability to control the ball (and clock) claimed the victory.

What does this mean for 2012?

You can see the importance of these explosive or “impact” plays have on the outcome of the game, which is why Brian Kelly bases his team’s defensive identity on their ability to prevent these plays. If ND is to improve their record in 2012, I believe they will accomplish this through becoming more explosive on offense and/or forcing more turnovers on defense, an area where the Irish were one of the worst in the country in 2011.

The good news is I fully expect significant improvement in both of these areas, in 2012. I believe there is a half a chance that ND starts a new QB from day one. The most likely candidates, Andrew Hendrix and Everett Golson, are far more explosive athletes than the incumbent starter. Thus, they are more likely to create impact/explosive plays whenever they have the ball. Both players offer the threat of moving the chains with their legs, which should open passing lanes for ND. Additionally, a new wrinkle in ND’s offensive scheme will allow another avenue for ND to exploit mismatches, with their personnel.

The introduction of the hybrid slot/RB position inspired much intrigue in the spring sessions, culminating in a highly productive display from the position in the annual Blue & Gold scrimmage. The idea is to create mismatches by being variable in how you can line-up your personnel. Cierre Wood, Theo Riddick, and George Atkinson will be able to carry the ball out of the backfield on first down, flex out wide on second down, and motion for an end around on third down. The implementation of pre-snap motion and misdirection should provide the ND offense a schematic advantage, rarely used in 2011.

Predicting a schematic change on defense is a bit more tenuous. I would personally love to see ND be more aggressive. Undoubtedly there would be more turnovers forced; however, there would also be more big plays given up. I just do not know if Kelly will allow Diaco to be much more aggressive. That is probably the biggest question mark (behind the QB race) going into the 2012 season. At times, the 2011 ND defense was incredibly disruptive and created plays for ND. However, rarely was the defense given the green light to attack the offense. The perfect example was the FSU matchup.

The most glaring weakness in the Seminole team, was their porous offensive line. ND abused FSU for three quarters, along the offensive line. The ND defense lived in the FSU backfield, wreaking havoc for EJ Manuel. However, a more conservative approach in the fourth quarter, allowed Manuel time to pick apart ND’s underwhelming secondary. This defensive game plan would have been fine, if it were not for the explosive plays made by FSU in the second half – long kick-off return (3 points), interception in ND territory (7 points), and interception in ND endzone (at least 3 points prevented). These three plays, which did not occur when FSU had the ball, were more than enough to swing the game for the Seminoles.

The point I am trying to illustrate is that ND cannot remain conservative on defense if the offense and/or special teams continues to give away explosive plays. Otherwise, your opponent will have their cake and eat it too. Whether, ND is more aggressive in 2012, or not, remains to be seen. I have a hunch, that ND will be situationally aggressive, similar to 2011. I think that Kelly and Diaco realize that they have the personnel (even after the Lynch departure) to be more aggressive on defense. So, despite their defensive philosophy I think you will see ND release the hounds if they smell blood in the water (yes, I just combined two different metaphors, which combined make no sense).

Offensive Outlook

Scheme

While, most are probably focused on who will be our starting quarterback (rightfully so), I am almost as intrigued to see the schematic changes in 2012. Rumblings of multiple tight end sets and the new slot/running back hybrid position are giving Irish fans visions of the days of old, when it was four yards and a cloud of dust. While I do expect ND to employ more multiple TE sets and even run the ball more, I do not expect a traditional power running team (a la Alabama or Stanford). I think what you will see is not totally unlike ND’s rushing offense of 2011, with different personnel groupings.

Replace the X or W receiver with a second TE, add in some misdirection plays and some zone runs, and this is what I expect to see from ND in 2012. Kelly became known for his high octane air assault at Cincinnati. However, I think this was more of a product of his situation than a result of building his ideal offense. While at Grand Valley State, Kelly’s most effective and efficient offenses were dynamic running teams, in addition to being proficient through the air. The major concepts will surely remain consistent: spread principles, stem receiver routes, and a playmaking QB with the ability to keep plays alive (the key component missing in years 1 and 2).

Personnel

New offensive line coach Harry Hiestand placed an emphasis on zone blocking schemes in spring practice. This thought may send chills down Irish fans’ spines, given the massive failures of zone blocking under our previous regime. However, if taught and executed effectively zone blocking, interspersed with man to man, can be extremely effective and keep defensive linemen on their heels, as it will be harder for them to gauge who is responsible for blocking them once the ball is snapped. The key to the success of the new zone schemes rests with the veteran offensive line.

The Irish return 4 linemen with starting experience. The left side remains unchanged with Zach Martin (LT), Chris Watt (LG), and Braxton Cave (C). Christian Lombard, a key contributor in 2011, has cemented a spot in the starting five. Whether that is at RT or RG, is to be determined. The fifth spot is currently open for competition. It figures to be one of Mike Golic, the interior OL who started at C in place of the injured Cave the last 4 games of 2011; Nick Martin, the sophomore guard is the brother of Zach; or Tate Nichols, the mammoth tackle yet to play a down, entering his third season. No matter who wins the battle, all three will get significant reps. Sophmores Matt Hegarty (C), Jordan Prestwood (LT), and Connor Hanratty (OG), along with junior Bruce Heggie (OG), supply quality depth making this a position of strength for the Irish.

Speaking of strength, there is no better position group on this team than tight end. An already strong group, which features the best pass catching TE in college football (Tyler Eifert), was bolstered by the move of Troy Niklas, a 6’7” 250+ lbs hulk (nicknamed “Hercules”), from outside linebacker to TE. Ben Koyack, a rising sophomore, looks like the heir apparent to Eifert. However, it could be Niklas who sees the field early and often. Kelly did not beat around the bush when discussing two TE sets. The #2 guy, will be the best in-line blocker. I expect both Niklas and Koyack, along with Alex Welch to play early and often. Niklas, a OT his senior year in high school, could prove to be the best blocker of the three. Koyack gives you another pass-catching threat, opposite Eifert. Welch, the smallest of the three, showed up in the H-back spot during the spring, offering yet another avenue for Kelly to get his talented TEs on the field. This is the best group of TEs in the country, for my money.

If ND’s offense is going to be more explosive in 2012, look for increased production from the slot/RB position. As discussed above, these were two distinct positions in 2011. In 2012, however, the waters have been muddied. Expect to see two of these players on the field; however, their responsibilities should now be combined. I would be shocked to see Cierre Wood line up out wide more than a few times in a game, and I highly doubt Roby Toma will receive more than 20 carries on the year; however, guys like Riddick and GAIII could be truly be a mixture of RB/Slot receiver. Although a small sample size, in the B&G game this position accounted for 13 receptions and 26 carries for a grand total of 313 yards, led by GAIII with 3 receptions (54 yards) and 15 carries (124 yards).

GAIII’s performance opened the eyes of some Irish fans, and it’s safe to assume he will touch the ball a lot in 2012. As one of only two freshmen in ND Football history to return two kickoff for TDs, GAIII is a proven playmaker. A guy with that type of game breaking ability needs to touch the ball. However, Irish fans would be wise to not overlook returning 1,000+ yard rusher, Cierre Wood, and two year started Theo Riddick. All three players looked explosive and efficient this spring. When adding in the always reliable Roby Toma, it’s hard to imagine anyone else getting touches, at this position. However, in the fall the Irish add stud transfer, from USC, Amir Carlisle (who would likely be the #2 RB for preseason favorites, USC) and blue chip recruits Davonte Neal (#8 overall prospect, according to ESPN) and Keivarae Russell (Army All-American). After breaking his ankle in the spring, it’s possible Carlisle sits out 2012. However, it’s hard to imagine keeping a healthy Neal off the field. He will likely make his presence felt on special teams. Russell is also likely to wait a year before stepping on the field.

Other running backs, Cam Roberson and true freshman Will Mahone, could get reps as the only two pure power backs on the Irish roster. However, don’t be surprised to see Welch, or even, Eifert get some carries in short yardage. The RB position has turned from a perceived weakness, during the spring of 2011, to one of the strongest positions on the team in 2012.

The new perceived weakness resides on the outside, where Michael Floyd’s graduation left a massive void. A player like Floyd is not replaced. This is especially true considering the options currently on the Irish roster. Two year starter, TJ Jones, and 5th year senior, John Goodman, should be solid and capable of doing the necessary. However, I do not believe either offers much in the way of a playmaker. Davaris Daniels received praise from the coaching staff this spring for his athleticism. However, the sophomore, who did not play in 2011, is still learning the position. As evidenced in the spring game, he is capable of making plays; however, he is also liable to make his QBs look bad at times. Help arrives in the fall, in the form of true freshmen Chris Brown (an outstanding track athlete) and Justin Ferguson. Neither is thought to be an instant impact player, though; so, their contributions may not be noticed until the 2013 season or beyond. The status of this position makes the return of Tyler Eifert even more important.

Defensive Outlook

The 2012 Irish defense should largely resemble the 2011 version. Some key faces are gone: Harrison Smith, Aaron Lynch, Robert Blanton, Darius Fleming, Gary Gray, Sean Cwynar, and Ethan Johnson. However, lots of guys got on the field for the Irish in 2011, receiving significant minutes. So, guys like Kona Schwenke, Chase Hounshell, Ishaq Williams, Danny Spond, Bennett Jackson, and Lo Wood have something to build on.

The defensive line suffered an extreme amount of injuries in 2011. Four significant members of the DL rotation (Johnson, KLM, Cwynar, and Tuitt) all missed significant time to injury or illness. Despite this fact, the line performed well and was probably one of the better units in the country. The silver-lining is that some of the younger players received more repetitions in their stead. One such player, Lynch, has since left the program. Relieving ND of their best pass rusher.

Despite this loss I expect the DL to perform at the level of their 2011 counterparts, provided they can stay healthy. While the depth remains solid, the Irish are not as equipped to handle four significant injuries along the defensive line, in 2012. Early enrollee Sheldon Day worked his way into the two deep, during spring ball, and should get plenty of reps behind Kapron Lewis-Moore and Stephon Tuitt at defensive end. The biggest surprise of the spring was arguably Schwenke, who unseated Louis Nix III as the starting nose tackle. Whether he can hold off “Irish Chocolate” during the summer and fall remains to be seen. However, even if he does not, he gives ND quality depth behind the big man. Hounshell and fellow sophomore Tony Springmann, who did not play in 2011, should be healthy for fall camp after each having shoulder surgeries in the offseason. Those two, along with Tyler Stockton and true freshman Jarron Jones will provide good depth for the Irish DL. Although I am sure the coaches would prefer to allow Jones a year to learn and prepare physically for the college game, I am not sure the Irish have that luxury with the Lynch departure.

The Lynch loss is especially painful because no other player on the DL has the ability to consistently get to the QB, when needed. Tuitt and Nix can both be disruptive; however, Lynch was an elite pass rusher. In 2012 the Irish pass rush will likely depend on the linebackers. Unfortunately, the best pass rusher, Darius Fleming, is now a part of the 49ers organization. Prince Shembo displayed tremendous pass rushing ability as a true freshman in 2010. Playing a new position, Dog OLB, in 2011, Shembo was less productive. However, a return to CAT, which he played in 2010 should help his (and ND’s) ability to get into the opponents’ backfield. His understudy, Ishaq Williams, arrived in the spring of 2011 with as much hype as his classmates, Lynch and Tuitt. His ability, nor his production, was as evident on the field in 2011, playing behind Fleming. Shembo’s battle with turf toe this spring afforded Williams an opportunity to run with the first team for the better part of 15 sessions. This experience should prove vital in his development. Hopefully a productive B&G game (where he forced two turnovers) propels him into a productive summer and fall camp. The Irish need him to step-up if they want to get to the QB in 2012.

On the other side of the front seven, Danny Spond and Ben Counsell are in fight for the starting Dog OLB position, vacated by Shembo. Both rangy athletes will get plenty of reps, though. Although, this spot will probably be utilized less in 2012 than in 2011, with the new “star” position made popular by Jamoris Slaughter’s play against spread and option teams down the stretch of 2011. Look for Slaughter, Austin Collinsworth, and maybe one of the freshmen (Nicky Barratti or Elijah Shumate) to factor into this spot against similar teams in 2012.

The middle of the Irish defense should again be a strength, with the return of All-Everything Manti Te’o. Shocking Irish fans and NFL draft pundits, alike, Te’o announced his return in December, which was awesome news for ND. This meant the Irish did not have to replace their leading tackler (from each of the last two seasons) and the leader of their defense. A slimmer Te’o should rack up another 120+ tackles while looking to improve his pass defense. In 2011, he showcased an improved ability to rush the passer. Look for him to get into the backfield more often, as the Irish will have to use their fourth rusher more effectively to generate pressure/penetration, in 2012. I think this means more opportunities for Te’o to showcase this ability.

Opposite Manti, Fox and Calabrese should both be improved from a 2011 season, which was a bit of a roller coaster for the co-starters. It’s possible younger players, Jarrett Grace and Kendall Moore, eat into the duo’s snaps in 2012. Both players had great springs and will surely not be content spending another year on the bench. The linebacking corps is as deep and experienced as it’s been in a long time. This should make the Irish, again, tough to run on.

The same cannot be said for the Irish secondary. Zeke Motta and Slaughter, both, return with starting experience. However, behind these two veterans, the secondary is woefully inexperienced. Collinsworth had a tremendous spring and should provide quality depth behind Motta and Slaughter, and Bennett Jackson looks like he could be a potential stud at cornerback. There will surely be growing pains, but the other CB spot is the real concern. The Irish will likely employ many bodies here and hope that someone emerges. Lo Wood, the only other CB with game experience, will likely get the starting nod here, but ND will use Josh Atkinson, Jalen Brown, and probably Cam McDaniel (a converted RB) here frequently. The coaching staff will likely protect the CB platoon with soft zone coverages and plenty of safety help, which is actually not all that different from ND’s base scheme. Luckily, the 2012 schedule should cooperate with the young, inexperienced secondary, as the Irish will not face an experienced, proven thrower until it plays Oklahoma, at the end of October; although, Denard Robinson, BYU and Stanford could test the young secondary, as well.

The 2012 slate…

Once again, the Irish are forced to navigate an unforgiving line-up of foes in 2012. A preseason evaluation of schedules would probably land ND’s at or near the top of the list of the most difficult. Three of ND’s opponents (USC, Michigan, and Oklahoma) will likely begin the season ranked in the top 10, by most. Two others (Michigan State and Stanford) will almost assuredly fall into the top 15-20 teams, preseason. Add it a BYU team, which returns a lot from its 10 win version in 2011, and you’ve got a daunting road ahead.

The one benefit of the 2012 schedule, is I believe that it is organized in a manner that will allow ND to navigate to the best of their ability. Yes, ND must return from a road trip to East Lansing the week prior to hosting Michigan. And BYU is perfectly situated in a classic “trap game” scenario, between Stanford and Oklahoma. However, I do not think I could have organized this schedule much better.

Navy and Purdue should both be better than their 2011 selves. However, I do not think they will be improved enough to challenge an Irish team that bested them by a combined 70 points in 2011. An added benefit of playing Navy in week one is that it allows ND to get the only option team, on their schedule, out of the way first. It’s no secret that option teams require more specific preparation, playing them in week one provides ND a little extra time. Purdue is a bit more worrisome of a matchup, not because of the challenge they present as an opponent, but rather the intangibles surrounding the game. The Irish will be returning from a week one match-up on the other side of the globe, playing an improved opponent (who views ND as their biggest game each year), the week before a marquee game against another rival. This game is one to keep an eye on, as a potential slip.

Unlike previous years, when the Irish jump straight into the meat of their schedule, 2012 affords ND two “warm-up” games against two of the weaker opponents on their schedule. As long as the Irish stay focused, they should roll into East Lansing 2-0 (for the first time in the BK Era), which is crucial because this match-up will be the first of many dogfights in 2012. Do not be fooled by ND’s 18 point victory in 2011. Michigan St was a top 10 team and the best team in the B1G according to my final P&E standings [This metric combines the Power and Explosiveness ratings, adding in a turnover rating]. If you believe in “signature wins” (a concept that I hate), you would have to include this as perhaps the lone signature victory of the BK Era. This game is a toss-up, and will likely be determined by which players step up to create plays.

The Irish must then turn around to face a vastly improved Michigan team, a team I believe has an outside shot at the BCS Title Game. For the better part of the first three quarters of the 2011 game “Under the Lights” ND looked like they were going to run Michigan right out of the Big House. One insane quarter later, Michigan had snatched victory from the jaws of defeat. It was hard for ND fans to not feel like the game was a fluke. Perhaps it was, but my final analysis of the 2011 season shows me that Michigan was more than just lucky. Finishing 12th in the final P&E standings, Michigan was deserving of their BCS appearance and returning a ton of production on both sides of the ball placed them at 3rd in my preseason P&E ratings, behind only Georgia and USC. I do not think Michigan is better than Alabama (who came in 12th because of the amount of production they lost), though; who coincidentally is there week one opponent. For once in recent memory, Michigan comes into their matchup with ND having played a tough schedule: Alabama in week one and Air Force in week two. This is good news for ND because a thin OL and DL depth are the only serious concerns for an elite Michigan team. If the Irish register a victory here, it should be viewed as nothing less than an upset.

The bye week should allow ND to catch their breaths before a turbulent October. The neutral site game against Miami is essentially a home game for the Irish, and believe it or not, I think this could be one of the easier matchups for ND. Miami lost a ton of production, from an average team, to the NFL. Many questions circle their program, including the status of Stephen Morris, their heir apparent at QB who missed all spring after offseason surgery. Miami’s strength, the run game, plays nicely into ND’s strength and if it’s even chilly in Chicago, the Canes might not even show up for the game.

The next matchup, against The Cardinal, should be considered a toss-up only because of Stanford’s impressive defense. Stanford will suffer an substantial drop-off in offensive efficiency with Luck’s departure. They have also lost a few of Luck’s favorite targets and top-notch offensive linemen. Stanford could be a good team in 2012, but playing them in week 7 allows ND to get them before they get to figure themselves out. Also, Shane Skov, the unquestioned leader of The Cardinal defense, is fresh off a nasty knee injury , which cut his 2011 season off after only a few games. He will have to knock off the rust and is unlikely to be the same player that caused fits for ND in 2010. Although this game should be considered a toss-up, I like the Irish’s chances here.

The Irish must stay focused because their next opponent, BYU, could easily pull an upset if the Irish look past the cougars to the next week’s marquee matchup with the Oklahoma Sooners. BYU will be an improved team from a campaign, in which they won 10 games. ND has a decided advantage in talent; however, BYU will be an experienced group with this game circled on their calendar. ND better be careful here or they could suffer a loss in a classic trap game.

ND’s trip to Norman will be its first in decades. The Irish will be greeted by four year starter, Heisman candidate quarterback Landry Jones. Jones was disappointing, by his own lofty standards, in 2011. He will be looking to rebound in 2012, but he will have to do it with a bunch of new faces at receiver. Record-setter Ryan Broyles is off to the NFL and standout sophomore Jaz Reynolds is likely to be suspended through the matchup with ND. #2 receiver Kenny Stills is back, and he will look to build off a disappointed campaign in 2011. This team reminds me of a sleeping giant. They were good in 2011, when they should have been elite. Oklahoma, again, has potential to be an elite team in 2012; however, they will not be able to outclass an Irish team with talent, on par with the Sooners. Oklahoma should be favored here, since they are playing at home. This could be ND’s best chance for an upset in 2012.

Either of the next two opponents, Pitt or Boston College, could trip the Irish if they are sleepwalking. However, it would have to be considered an upset if either opponent finishes their game as the victor. The Irish struggled to score against these two hard-nosed, veteran defenses in 2011. It is hard to imagine either team being much improved than their 2011 finish, 43rd and 83rd in the final P&E standings, respectively. Pitt lost a lot from their stingy 2011 defense and will be learning a new offense from first year head coach, Paul Cryst. BC returns a lot of production from their 2011 team, but they have parted ways with their all-time leading rusher (Montel Harris) and the heart and soul of their defense, tackling machine Luke Kuechly. I would expect the Irish to best both opponents by more than one score.

Wake Forest should offer little resistance as the Irish wrap-up their home slate in preparation for their most difficult game of the year, against rival USC. Wake lost a ton of production from their 2011 team, and I project that they will be the weakest opponent the Irish face in 2012. This should benefit an Irish team looking to win their second in-a-row at the Coliseum and potentially end their arch-rival’s BCS Title hopes.

The Trojans are currently collecting heaps of preseason accolades, and rightfully so. They return a ton of production from a top 10 finisher in 2011. With a 2012 slate, ranked as the 88th hardest in the country, it’s hard not to like USC’s chances of making it to the BCS Title Game. Their offense features no less than three potential All-Americans. They are protected by a defense which improved vastly from their disappointing 2010 version, featuring two undersized freshmen linebackers. Their defense is ideal against a spread team, which is the most common form of offense in the Pac-12.

This is not your older brother’s USC, though. Gone are the days of Pete Carroll and Reggie Bush. They will not simply line-up and destroy the other team. If they are to make it through their schedule unscathed, even though it’s fairly manageable, Kiffin will have done a tremendous piece of coaching. Now in year one of the scholarship reduction penalty, USC has depth concerns at RB, OL, and DL. If the Trojans stay health, they will be hard to beat, but injuries happen in football. One or two injuries along the OL could render the USC offensive machine severely limited. I don’t want to assume injuries; so, I predict that this game will tough for the Irish to win. However, my outlook on this game could change significantly depending on USC’s “luck” and health in 2012.

My prediction…

I reserve the right to change my prediction, closer to the season, based on any change in circumstance. For now, though, I predict a final record of 8-4 in the 2012 regular season. I do think ND will start 2-0 before dropping the next two. After thumping Miami and edging Stanford, I think ND wins a close game against BYU. Oklahoma will drop ND, narrowly, and remain undefeated. ND will run through their next three opponents before their matchup with USC. I think ND again loses a hard-fought game against an elite opponent. There is a good chance that the Irish would finish 9-4 under this scenario, though, as they would likely be matched against a far inferior opponent in the bowl game, allowing ND some momentum heading into an offseason before a 2013 season where expectations will be much, much higher.

In summary…

Irish fans should feel good about the direction of the program, for the first time in nearly two decades, ND should be able to string together 3 seasons of 8, or more, wins. This is no small feat for a program that has been devoid of any consistency since Lou Holtz left the sidelines. Kelly & Co. continue to recruit well, and the 2013 team should feature many players who started in 2012. I am not insinuating ND fans should look past 2012, though. ND will be competitive in every game, and with just a little bit of luck, the Irish could meet even the highest expectations. 2011 is the perfect example. The first three losses of the season all featured fumbles on the 1 yard line (two by ND, one by Michigan). All three of these fumbles resulted in touchdowns for our opponents. If you change the outcome of these three plays (one in each game), you likely change the outcome of the game. Football truly is a game of inches. Stay patient because there are big things to come.