Pre-season rankings, in any sport, are about as useful as a three-legged horse. The analysis and opinions provided by the many sets of pre-season publications will be worthless come September, when the actual season begins. However, every spring and summer I cannot help myself. I am enthralled by the various rankings by each outlet. [Shout out to Phil Steele and Athlon, who are easily the best in the business, for my money.] The masses helplessly declare that their university is way undervalued, or that team X is only ranked so that [fill in the blank] can sell magazines. Naturally, I have developed my own ranking system. I thought I would throw my semi-objective hat into the meaningless ring.
First, I want to explain my ranking methodology. There are three major components to my rankings: the ending 2011 P&E rankings, the amount of production returning in 2012, and subjective analysis of each team’s ability to replace any lost production. All of these factors are weighted against a strength-of-schedule calculation, which is derived using the P&E rankings. Briefly, P&E rankings are derived by comparing a team’s ability to move the ball versus its opponents, and vice versa, also considering the team’s ability to create and prevent “explosive” plays. Explosive plays are defined as passes of 30+ yards, runs of 20+ yards, punt returns of 20+ yards, and kick-off returns of 40+ yards. Factoring in such plays is based on the premise that creating (on offense) and limiting (on defense) such plays significantly enhances one’s odd of scoring. The second component, production, is measured as yards (passing+rushing+receiving) and tackles. Lastly, the third component is obviously subjective, however, necessary in my opinion. Team A’s ability to replace its lost production will differ from Team B’s ability to do the same. Thus, subjective analysis is necessary.
Before we get into the rankings, let me acknowledge that my “formula” has inherent flaws. I am readily aware that I will not be able to accurately project how well each team replaces its lost production, nor is relying on historical data full-proof. However, my goal was to create the most accurate and objective ranking system possible. And despite my self-deprecation, I know you are sitting on the edge of your seats right now. Without further adieu:
1. Georgia
2. USC
3. Florida State
4. LSU
5. Michigan
6. Oregon
7. Oklahoma
8. Alabama
9. Oklahoma State
10. TCU
11. South Florida
12. Ohio
13. North Carolina
14. Ohio State
15. Florida
16. Virginia Tech
17. Utah State
18. West Virginia
19. UCF
20. Arkansas
21. Vanderbilt
22. Michigan State
23. Missouri
24. Notre Dame
25. Texas
Most of the rankings, above, will not shock college football fans. However, a few things caught my eye when I first tabulated this poll. Georgia was the clear #1 based on their returning production. Their schedule (which I calculated as the 24th hardest) is actually easier than their 2011 slate (12th hardest). Nearly every key piece returns for a team that made the SEC Championship in 2011. I think this will be the Bulldogs’ year.
Stanford, Wisconsin, South Carolina, Clemson, and even Boise State have found their way onto most preseason polls. However, my poll excludes each from the top 25 for various reasons. Stanford, Wisconsin, and Boise State all lost key personnel from successful 2011 teams. In all three cases, I do not expect the replacements to be able to replicate what their predecessors have done. Obviously, Stanford (#26) lost its best QB, since Elway (maybe ever), but beyond that the Cardinal lost more than a third of its defensive production as well as its top receivers and offensive linemen. Wisconsin (#31) lost playmaking quarterback, Russell Wilson, in addition to a quarter of its defensive production. Boise (#72) lost nearly 60% of its defensive production and two-thirds of its offense. I think the Broncos take a major step back in 2012.
South Carolina (#34) is a victim of its schedule (6th hardest), which is a direct result of the new and improved SEC East division (the toughest in 2012, in my opinion). I believe the Gamecocks are a legitimate top 25 team (#18 in my Preseason P&E ratings); however, they will be lucky to win more than 8 games. Lastly, Clemson (#45) is a bit of mystery. They return a good amount of production; however, my final 2011 P&E ratings only valued the Tigers in the mid-50s. I think the Tigers were pretenders in 2011 (this theory would certainly explain the Orange Bowl debacle); thus, I predict a better team in 2012, but a drop-off in wins (max 8).
Ohio at 12 might surprise some, as well. I certainly raised my eyebrows when my projection called for an undefeated season, which would include a win at Penn State. The Nittany Lions are the only BCS foe for the preseason MAC favorite. So, 12 and 0 is entirely possible for the Bobcats and 11 and 1 is probable. However, I cannot see a serious at the BCS for two reasons: lack of preseason recognition (matters only for non-AQ schools) and very weak schedule.
Utah State and UCF round out the non-AQ teams in my top 25. The schedules for each of these two are quite a bit tougher. Utah State would have to upend Wisconsin (in Madison) and Utah (home), in order to run the table. And UCF has even tougher sledding with an away game in Columbus, against the Buckeyes, and a home contest against the Missouri Tigers. However, I think Utah State will run the table in the depleted WAC. UCF faces a stiffer test in Conference USA, which is perhaps the 6th toughest in the land; however, their biggest challenge comes against Southern Miss at home. I expect both teams to win their respective conferences, outright.
I have not seen anyone project TCU in the top 10. I was a little hesitant, myself, to put them so high. However, they return almost everyone from a dynamic offense, which could be one of the best in the Big XII, if not the best. The defense did lose nearly a third of its production from 2011; however, Gary Patterson always fields competent defenses. I see the Big XII as a three team race. I gave the Sooners the edge because they get Oklahoma State at home and TCU will surely face some challenges from 2012 being their first year in the conference. I would be surprised in West Virginia or Texas are serious players in the conference championship; however, I do believe both will be quality teams, hence the top 25 rankings.
Overall, this is a very bad year in the ACC. Ironically, because of this, an ACC team might make the BCS National Championship for the first time since 2002. FSU is clearly the class of the conference. UNC and Virginia Tech, both of whom rank outside the top 20 in my preseason P&E ratings, find their way in to my top 15 and 20, respectively. The only reason Clemson was left out of the top 25 is because of their tough non-conference slate, which includes the opener against Auburn (in Atlanta) and their season-ending rivalry against South Carolina.
As I alluded previously, this year will be a coming out party for the SEC East. Four of these schools landed in the top 10 of my preseason P&E ratings! Obviously, they each have to play each other; so, their records will probably not reflect their quality. Vanderbilt, at #21, is probably the most surprising. The Commodores return almost everyone from a productive 2011 offense. Underrated on defense a year ago, Vandy also returns better than two-thirds of their defensive production. Couple those factors with the easiest schedule in the SEC and the fact that this program is in year 2 of James Franklin’s tenure and the arrow is pointing up for this program.
Notre Dame lands at #24 because I am trying to solicit readers. Actually, the Irish are rated #18 in my preseason P&E ratings. Facing the toughest schedule in the country, a year ago, ND disappointed most fans with an 8-5 record, largely a result of their own mistakes (-15 TO margin). ND fans get little reprieve in 2012, facing what I project to be the 4th toughest schedule, which includes 3 top ten teams and 5 in the top 26. I think the Irish will field a much better team in 2012; however, the record is due for only marginal improvement, if any.
There you go, kids. I have imparted my knowledge/opinion/bias/ramblings onto you. Ah, you’re welcome!
Well done my little friend
ReplyDeleteI should also probably add some context to my ranking of Alabama. In my final 2011 P&E Ratings, the Crimson Tide were far and away the number one team. They were probably one of the most statistically dominant teams in modern football. In 2012, they lose more ability than most teams fielded a year ago. This would cripple most teams; however, they still landed at #12 in my Preseason P&E ratings. If you have paid any attention to recruiting (or Nick Saban), you know that Bama has the horses (and know-how) to reload versus rebuild. They will not, however, have the luxury to let the new faces "cut their teeth" against inferior opponents like some. Bama opens against my #5 team. Still it is hard to imagine the Wolverines being able to top the Tide. So, I fully expect Bama to roll "Big Blue". However, Bama faces a much tougher schedule after week 1, which is the only reason Michigan made my top 5, versus Bama. The Tide have tough away games at LSU, Arkansas, and Missouri. It is hard enough to repeat in College Football; however, doing it while replacing nearly half of your production (from a season ago) would be miraculous. I will say that I would not be one bit surprised to see Bama with 11 or even 12 wins after the regular season (which would obviously be a top 5 ranking); however, I do not think it is fair to expect such results in 2012. On paper, it is hard to pinpoint which teams could be Bama; however, games aren't played on paper. It is typically inexperience that leads to mistakes which cause losses for otherwise more-talented teams. We saw it in 2010. I expect that we will see it a couple times in 2012, as well.
ReplyDeleteAs a Michigan fan I hate to agree with you're statment of "Roll Big Blue" but that is the most likely outcome.
ReplyDeleteHowever I strongly disagree with you placing Georgia on top.
They can return however many players and still go 6 & 6.
Call it a curse but they will do well against the good teams but loose to the bad and really dont look to them beating Missouri.
Hey John. Thanks for reading. Admittedly, I was a little apprehensive putting UGA at #1. They seem to have a way of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. However, my objective with this poll, was to remain as objective (no pun intended) as possible. The ratings were well in favor of the Bulldogs. I allowed myself some margin to be subjective; however, I did not allow myself complete freedom to supersede the ratings. The real purpose of these rankings was to vet a new qualitative rating system. I feel pretty good about my 2011 set, using actual results. The real challenge is projecting those amounts into relevant 2012 values.
ReplyDelete