Last week, Colorado announced it will be leaving the Big XII and joining the Pac-10. The following day, Nebraska announced their move to the Big Ten. While this answers some questions, it also opens up more debate. What now happens to the Big Ten, Pac-10 and Big XII?
Leading into the debate on conference realignment, the two conferences with the most to gain were the Big Ten and the Pac-10. This is because the BCS mandates that a conference must have 12 teams in order to host a conference championship game. As we all know, a conference championship game equals big money and exposure.
Therefore, the Big Ten, sitting at eleven members stretching eight states, needed only one additional school, which it accomplished with Nebraska. The question now with the Big Ten is how will the conference divide itself? Geographically, Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan would find themselves in the same division, with Wisconsin virtually unmatched in the opposing division. (This is one of the many reasons why I believe a 16 team mega football conference cannot possibly work). With the traditional Big Ten powers, potentially finding themselves in the same division, this drastically decreases their chances for a National Championship.
The Pac-10, sitting at ten members in only four states, desires not only two additional teams in the least, but also a greater expansive reach in the West Coast. Therefore, Colorado, while not a great addition athletically, is a strategic move geographically. The question remains, who else will the Pac-10 find? Will they stop at twelve teams?
In my opinion, Utah would be a great addition both athletically and geographically. However, with the Mountain West recently adding Boise State, it seems to be exerting itself as a potential BCS conference. It's hard to argue against this fact, especially as the MWC seems poised to scoop up the remnants of the Big XII.
But the question still remains will the Big XII fall apart? The Big XII now has ten teams in only four states, but it also controls almost all of Texas. It is no secret that the Pac-10 eyes Texas and Oklahoma, two national powerhouses in two large television markets. However, do these schools not realize that if the Pac-10 expands to sixteen teams, then the Big XII is simply going to become a single division in Pac-10, when it could be it's own conference! Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Missouri, Colorado, Arizona, and Arizona State would be the division. Sounds like the Big XII! I find it hard to believe that the money earned would outweigh the decreased chances for a National Championship.
The easiest solution and most viable is for the Pac-10 to scoop of Fresno State or UNLV from the WAC and for the Big XII to invite Fresno State/UNLV, Nevada or even Utah State. The Big Ten is complete. The SEC, while it is rumored to covet Texas A&M, already has twelve teams and has no reason to expand. And last but not least, ND maintains its independent status.
-DH
