Laying down the Boom

The Irish dominated a top ten opponent on the road in the national spotlight, silencing critics and analysts and wowing media pollsters.  The final score of 30-13, might not tell the whole story as the Irish tacked on 17 points in the final four minutes of the game, and Oklahoma had 14 points removed from the board due to penalties.


HEISMAN BABY

MANTI TE'O - 11 tackles, INT, Sack - Te'o racked up all his tackles in the first half, but saved his INT for the defining moments.  The fourth quarter diving interception by Te'o led to an Irish FG that put ND up two scores with just over three minutes to play, virtually sealing the victory.


ROCK SOLID

FOUR HORSEMEN - 37 rushes for 212 yards, 3 TDs - Lacking the fourth member for the second straight week, the Irish rushing attack still managed to be dominant.  Cierre Wood (7 rushes for 74 yards, TD) set the tone early on his 62-yard TD scamper.  Everett Golson (11 rushes for 64 yards) proved effective scrambling out of the pocket and avoiding sacks.  Theo Riddick (19 rushes for 74 yards) provided the exclamation point scoring a late tack on touchdown.

EVERETT GOLSON - 13 of 25 for 177 yards - The only statistic that jumps out is the fact that Golson had zero turnovers.  There was all this hype going into the game about Golson turning the ball over and Oklahoma having the best pass defense the Irish will see all season, etc.  Golson silenced his doubters and really matured through out the game.  He was on target all night and made the right decisions.

CHRIS BROWN - 1 reception, 50 yards - Brown proved not once, but twice the dangerous deep threat he can be.  I thought he should have caught the first ball, but made up for it the second time around.  It's a great weapon for Kelly to have in his arsenal.

KYLE BRINDZA - 3 for 4 FGs, 3 for 3 XPs - Brindza rallied after his first miss, keeping the lead in Irish hands, and eventually putting the game away in the 4th quarter.

GET HIM OUTTA THERE

Big win all around = no complaints.


WAIT, WHAT

I couldn't help but laugh at the how the final minute of the game transpired.  Not only did we win, but Oklahoma embarrassed themselves.  Oklahoma drives down the field for the touchdown.  But wait! He was correctly called out at the one yard line.  So Oklahoma scores on the next play.  But wait!  An upset Kenny Stills clearly pushes off and flagged for 15 yards.  And on the final play, Shembo sacks Landry for a 7 yard loss and Oklahoma stands around confused as to what just transpired watching the final seconds tick away.

Whew

I, along with all other Notre Dame fans, have been so consumed by the hype of tonight's Oklahoma game, that I failed to recap the 17-14 nail-bitter against BYU.  So, to officially log the awards:

HEISMAN BABY

MANTI TE'O - 10 tackles, INT - Te'o moved up to #2 in the ESPN Heisman poll after another consistent performance.  While the IRISH D gave up their first touchdowns in four games, it still has yet to allow a rushing TD.



ROCK SOLID

FOUR HORSEMEN - 38 carries for 268 yards, TD - Even without Golson in the game, the Irish rushing attacked proved too much for the statistically stout BYU defense.  Theo Riddick (15 carries for 143 yards) and Cierre Wood (18 carries for 114 yards) racked up the yards while GAIII (5 carries for 11 yards) found pay dirt.

STEPHON TUITT - 5 tackles, 2 sacks - Tuitt increased his sack total to 8.5 on the season with two crucial sacks of the BYU QB.

TYLER EIFERT - 4 receptions for 73 yards, TD - Eifert found a few openings in the BYU defense, out jumping the defender every time, showing off his athletic abilities.


GET HIM OUTTA THERE

KYLE BRINDZA - 1 for 3 FGs - Brindza missed a 40-yarder and 28-yarder, both in the first half, leaving Notre Dame fans cursing at their televisions sets and sitting on the edge of their seats. Brindza redeemed himself

TOMMY REES - 7 of 16 for 117 yards, TD, INT - While Rees led the Irish on a TD drive early in the 1st quarter, he flopped the rest of the way, only attempting two passes in the 2nd half.  Kelly recognized Rees' struggles, inserting Hendrix into the game in the 2nd quarter. 


WAIT, WHAT?

Riddick runs into the pile, and then suddenly, is off to the races.  His 55-yard scamper no doubt had Stanford fans enraged as Riddick ran into the back of his lineman only to find daylight and no defense in front of him.

Standing Tall

Without a doubt, Saturday night's thrilling 20-13 overtime victory over Stanford marked one of my all time highs as a Notre Dame fan.  I would have to say the last time I felt that nervous/excited/ecstatic was when Brady Quinn scored the go ahead touchdown against #1 USC in 2005.  Ironically enough, that was the last time ESPN's College Gameday was at Notre Dame, and also featured similar circumstances at the goal line.  This time however, the favor fell with the Irish in what no doubt will be etched in the memories of Stanford fans with an asterisk.


HEISMAN BABY

MANTI TE'O - 11 tackles - Te'o continues to cement his status as a Notre Dame legend, amassing double digit tackles for the second straight week, and leading the Irish defense to their fourth consecutive game without giving up a TD.  Oh and they stopped Stanford four straight downs inside the five yard line to win the game - no big deal.


ROCK SOLID

FOUR HORSEMEN -  173 net rushing yards - We may be witnessing a modern rebirth of the legendary Irish rushing attack in Cierre Wood, Everett Golson, Theo Riddick and George Atkinson III.  On a rain soaked field, the Irish ground game allowed the Irish to move the ball down the field against a physical and talented front seven for Stanford. 

TYLER EIFERT - 4 rec. for 57 yards, TD - It's no secret that opposing defenses have keyed in on stopped Eifert, often double teaming him every play.  However, that didn't stop Eifert from hauling in a crucial 24-yard TD reception in double coverage to tie the game early in the 4th quarter. 

TOMMY REES - 4 of 4 for 43 yards, TD - While Rees has taken a beating from most ND fans (including this guy), he again stepped up and led the Irish to victory following Golson's departure late in the 4th quarter with a concussion.  His lob pass to Theo Riddick on 3rd-8 in overtime may be the play of the game.

STEPHON TUITT - 7 tackles, .5 sack, blocked FG - Tuitt anchored the defensive line in the touchdown shut out performance, even picking up a half sack to push his season total to 6.5.  Tuitt has been a force all season long, and he starting to garner national attention for it.


GET HIM OUTTA THERE

EVERETT GOLSON - 12 of 24 for 141 yards, TD; 15 rushes for 41 yards, 4 fumbles (3 lost) - If it was not for the sloppy conditions, the four fumbles would have Irish fans in an uproar, especially the one for the TD.  However, Golson stayed positive, played hard and brought the Irish back with a beauty to Eifert for the game tying score.


WAIT, WHAT

With the win, the Irish secured a post season bowl berth, one of 16 teams to do so at this point in the season.  With the win, the Irish are clearly in the National Championship picture, and will surely be ranked in the BCS top five.  This will be the first BCS ranking for the Irish since 2006 when they finished the regular season ranked 11th.

Running Away With It

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish improved to 5-0 following a 41-3 beat down over Miami, ascending to #7 in the national polls.


HEISMAN BABY

MANTI TE'O - 10 tackles - Te'o is not only winning the Heisman on this blog, but is receiving national acclaim for his performance to date.  He led the Irish defense again for the third straight week by not allowing the opponent to reach the end zone.


ROCK SOLID

CIERRE WOOD - 18 carries for 118 yards, 2 TDs - Wood finally posted a break out game, after back-to-back 1000 yard rushing seasons.  It's a great sign for the Irish if Wood can continue playing at this level each week.

GEORGE ATKINSON III - 10 carries for 127 yards, TD - Atkinson displayed his incredible burst of speed on his 55 yards touchdown scamper putting the nail in the coffin late in the third quarter.  His ability to go the distance on any play will be a vital part of the offensive success for the rest of the season.

CAM MCDANIEL - 11 carries for 55 yards, TD - Don't be fooled.  McDaniel showed his power running abilities in mop up duty, carrying the Irish offense to pay dirt. McDaniel could work his way into seeing some action.

EVERETT GOLSON - 17 of 22 for 186 yards, 6 rushes for 51 yards - Golson showed Irish fans why he's the #1 QB delivering on the ground and through the air.  While the Irish relied heavily on the run in the 2nd half, Golson is truly a dual-threat, which will be a tremendous boost to the Irish O going forward.


GET HIM OUTTA THERE

TOMMY REES - 2 of 4 for 25 yards - It felt like a forfeit of the first series when Rees pranced onto the field.  Rees can thank Golson for improving Rees' winning percentage as a starter - 76% (13-4).


WAIT, WHAT

376 rushing yards.  No turnovers.  21 third quarter points.  5-0.  Winning is fun. 

4-0

Notre Dame's defense stole the show Saturday night as the Irish outlasted Denard Robinson 13-6.  With six turnovers on the stat sheet, it was easy to hand out this weeks awards.


HEISMAN BABY

MANTI TE'O - 8 tackles (1 TFL), 2 INT - For the second time in as many weeks, Te'o dominated in the national spotlight, leading an opportunistic defensive squad (6 points, 3 sacks, 6 turnovers).  If Te'o keeps up this level of play, he may very well find him in the Heisman hunt.


ROCK SOLID

BENNETT JACKSON - 9 tackles, INT, fumble recovery - Jackson played his best game to date as a defensive stopper for the Irish secondary.  He was everywhere on the field and has been a pleasant surprise for the Irish at a position where that was their main weakness.

DANNY SPOND - 7 tackles, forced fumble - Fresh off an injury, Spond did not disappoint.  He came up with some big plays for the Irish D, including forcing Michigan QB Denard Robinson's 5th turnover of the game.

ZEKE MOTTA - 6 tackles - Motta is the veteran of the Irish secondary and has proven his worth not only with play, but also his leadership over a youthful secondary.  Having taken a lot of heat in the past and winding up in the category below, it is refreshing to see Motta find success.


GET HIM OUTTA THERE

EVERETT GOLSON - 3 of 8 for 30 yards, 2 INTs - Golson finds himself in this category simply because was taken out by Kelly in the 2nd quarter in favor of Rees.  While the redzone INT was simply stupid (throw it away!), I'm still huge on Golson, especially as our starter.


WAIT, WHAT?

Irish are 4-0 and ranked #10!!  For the first time in a decade, no where in the media chatter do you hear about Notre Dame's coach on the hot seat after the first four weeks of the season.  Rather it's about BCS bowls and gasp...National Championships?  In the words of Corso, "Not so fast my friend."  Let's take this one week at time.

Week 4 Outlook

Week 3 was a perfect example as to why I do not bet on college football games.  My “lock” of the week (THE Ohio State -17) nearly lost outright.  I guess that serves me right for calling it a “lock”.  Stupid.  And I was a dreadful 1-6 (2-5 against the spread).  I was gladly wrong about the Irish, who played perhaps their best game of the Brian Kelly Era.  Florida followed through, however, and dominated the second half against an overrated Tennessee team.  

In fact, the Gators have been extremely impressive through three weeks, hence their #2 rating in my P&E poll.  They have a gimme this week against a dreadful Kentucky Wildcat team.  However, there are two other intriguing SEC East matchups this week.  UGA, my preseason #1, has not quite looked like a #1 in 2012 (I addressed this in the comments to the ratings update article yesterday).  They should get a test from a pesky Vandy team, in Athens, this weekend.  Despite the two losses, I still believe in the Commodores.  In fact, I think the two losses could play in Vandy’s favor this weekend.  I still like Bulldogs to win; however, Vandy should cover the 16 point spread.

The second matchup features the newly minted Tigers3, visiting the South Carolina Gamecocks.  South Carolina would appear to have the edge in this game; however, I again think this one will be closer than Vegas would have you believe.  Both teams’ quarterbacks are a little banged up; however, I expect both to play.  I really like the way Mizzou responded to their letdown against UGA in week 2.  Without their best player, they were able to dispatch one of the biggest surprises in this early season.  Meanwhile, the Gamecocks were taken to the wire by a pesky Vanderbilt team and then dispatched two lesser opponents without batting an eye.  I like USCe in this matchup because it’s in Columbia.  But Mizzou should cover.  

The VIP matchup, this weekend, is the only one to feature two teams in the top 10 of P&E Ratings.  Michigan remains in the top 10, largely due to their lofty preseason rating (#3 overall).  They have yet to perform to this level in 2012.  However, they have dynamic talent at various positions, namely QB with Denard Robinson.  “Shoelaces” has made a career of decimating ND.  Just when it looked like the Irish had figured out the Denard puzzle in 2011, he unleashed probably the best 4th quarter to ever be played against an Irish defense on his way to leading the Wolverines to a miraculous win.  Heartbroken ND fans still have a hard time watching/talking/thinking about this dark moment.  Through 3 games, ND has been considerably more impressive in 2012.  Though, that hardly means anything, given the history of this game.  Talent generally does not disappear.  It’s not always fully utilized; however, it can show itself at any given moment.  This is why this game scares the crap out of me.  The key to this game will be when Michigan has the ball, whether ND’s front 3 or 4 can get to Denard.  If ND gets consistent pressure without a blitz, as it has been able to do so far in 2012, then ND should be able to stop Michigan enough times.   I think our offense is capable of scoring 20-30 points on Michigan’s defense.  The key is keeping the Wolverines below, or on the lower end of that range.  Final prediction:  Irish win a close one.  

My Week 4 Picks:  I’m doing this a little differently, now.  I’m no longer limiting myself to only “upset” picks, as that gives me a significantly lower pool to play with.  I’m going to pick all seven games against the spread.  If you follow our twitter feed, which I can almost guarantee you don’t, then you were privy to our first pick of the week.

1) BYU +8 over Boise State (already a success – much better start this week)

2) Marshall -3 at Rice

3) Wyoming -1.5 at Idaho

4) San Jose State +2.5 at San Diego State

5) Missouri +10.5 at South Carolina

6) Vanderbilt +14.5 at Georgia

7) New Mexico +6.5 at New Mexico State

Yes, that last pick is correct. I'm actually picking Boob Davies' team with the points. I'm in disbelief, too. 

Status Update: Week 3 P&E (Power & Efficiency) Ratings

If you have read any of our preview articles, you probably noticed a reference to P&E ratings.  This is a method, created to evaluate teams relative to one another.  This rating system is subjectively based on the premise that a team’s ability to defeat another team is a direct result of their ability to move the ball and prevent its opponent from doing the same.  A team’s ability to move the ball (and alternatively, their ability to prevent their opponent from moving the ball) is further measured by how quickly, or efficiently, this can be accomplished. 

I know this probably sounds complicated, but it is actually a very simple, rudimentary tool that, within a range, has been nearly 80% accurate this season, to date.  Please note that this is not a merit-based ranking system (i.e. teams are not ranked based on win/losses or margin of victory).  It is, however, adjusted for the strength of each team’s opponent. 

Our preseason top 25 was a mixture of a team’s ending 2011 P&E Rating and a percentage of production returning, all compared to each team’s schedule.  The result was a projected number of wins, losses, and matchups within a certain range, which I deemed to be “toss-ups”.  So, I derived a poll, based on projected wins and what I subjectively believed to be a team’s ability to replace lost production.  For example, I believed that Alabama was in a much better position to replace their lost production than Boise State.  Thus, Alabama received a much higher relative ranking (relative to their preseason P&E Rating), than Boise.

All of this is to say that this rating system is not comparable to any merit-based ranking, nor is it even comparable to our very own preseason top 25, which was done as fun exercise and nothing more. 

An important note about this week’s update of our ratings is that the 2012 sample size is entirely too small to use, by itself.  Since I exclude games played against non-FBS opponents (about 38% of all games played, to date), some teams only have one game of relevant data in 2012.  This is obviously not enough, from which I (or anyone) should draw conclusions.  Therefore, the preseason P&E Ratings are incorporated into this update.  The preseason ratings will phase out of each team’s rating, when enough games have been played. 

Our full P&E Ratings can be seen on the right side of this page, underneath the schedules.  However, I want to point out a couple of things that caught my eye. 

·         NEWS FLASH:  ALABAMA IS RIDICULOUSLY GOOD.  Shocking, I know.  Again the Tide, comfortably sit atop my P&E Ratings.  From 2011 to 2012, no team lost more ability than Alabama.  I am amazed at how easily they can replace that kind of talent. 

·         Through two weeks Florida has been downright impressive.   They were my only pick to follow-through in Week 3.  And it’s clear why. 

·         Despite a tough week 2 loss to UCLA, Nebraska has been very good.  Currently the only offense playing better than the Cornhuskers belongs to Dana Holgerson’s West Virginia Mountaineers.

·         Stanford’s rating is driven by their defense.  As you would expect, offensively the Cardinal is not there yet.

·         I am very high on FSU.  Their low ranking is due to them only playing one, below average, FBS team, so far.  They will likely climb significantly after this week.

·         It appears that I undersold South Carolina, UCLA, and Mississippi State.  All three of these teams have played above their preseason ratings and into the P&E Ratings’ Top 25. 

·         Through 3 weeks the most impressive teams (in terms of performance, relative to their preseason ratings):  Texas Tech, San Jose State, Arizona, Arizona State, and Purdue.

·         Through 3 weeks the most disappointing teams (in terms of performance, relative to their preseason ratings):  Southern Miss, UNC, Oklahoma (only 1 game), Arkansas, and Virginia Tech.

Remember the Spartans

Back by popular demand (not really) is the beginning of our annual Hackademy Awards.  Awards will be handed out after each game (apologies for missing the first two weeks), with accumulated tallies total at the end of the season.  Without further adieu:


HEISMAN BABY

MANTI TE'O - 12 tackles (1 TFL), fumble recovery - Playing with a heavy heart, Te'o dominated,  leading an inspired defensive group (3 points, 4 sacks) from start to finish.  While his stat line is impressive, the story can truly be told through the stats of Heisman hopeful (or previous hopeful) Le'Veon Bell - 19 carries for 77 yards.


ROCK SOLID

EVERETT GOLSON - 14 of 32 for 178 yards and a TD (plus a rushing TD) - While the stats are not off the charts, Golson did enough for the win, and furthermore did not turn the ball over.  Hard to argue against the fact that he is 3-0 as a starter.

BEN TURK - 8 punts for an average of 42.4 yards with 4 inside the 20 - Turk was busy all night, but finished mistake free.  In a game featuring two strong defenses, field position was a crucial factor and Turk delivered.

CIERRE WOOD - 10 rushes for 56 yards - It was a welcoming sight to see Wood back on the field.  His quickness was utilized at an opportune time to propel the Irish to key first downs late in the game.

JOHN GOODMAN - 1 rec. for 36 yards , TD - The 5th year senior made his career highlight catch while being interfered with early in the 1st quarter and it proved to be the winning score.


GET HIM OUTTA THERE

PRINCE SHEMBO - 9 tackles (2 tfl), 1 sack - While Shembo played a great game defensively, his (back-to-back) personal foul penalty(ies) were simply stupid.


WAIT, WHAT?

Remember when the ball popped off the foot of TJ Jones up into the air, was picked off by a MSU defender and returned for a touchdown, spiraling the Irish into defeat?  While it did not exactly happen that way, ghosts of Irish pasts seem to look favorably on this Irish team as the breaks, particularly that one, seemed to go our way for once.

Week 3 Outlook

Well, Week 2 was a bit less forgiving, for our preseason poll.  Oklahoma State, UNC, and Vanderbilt are all determined to make me look like an idiot.  USF one-upped them by throwing away last night’s contest against the Scarlet Knights.  5 turnovers?!  Really?!  That’s some Bulls’ crap!  Do you see what I did there?

A couple of games did go our way, however.  We finished 4-3 on our upset picks.  Louisiana Monroe and Utah State made us look very good, but Kent State and Illinois did not help us out much.  Additionally, both Georgia and Missouri looked strong in their game.  Missouri looked very impressive, until Jarvis Jones single-handedly took over the game.  I still think the Tigers³ will surprise some of their new SEC foes, this year.  Our exclusion of the Wisconsin Badgers from our preseason top 25 looks fair, at this point.  I think they are at risk of dropping to 1 and 2, as a very dangerous Utah State comes into to Madison.   Similarly, our exclusion of Nebraska from the preseason top 25 also looks like a good play. 

The two biggest games, this week, are obvious.  I covered one, the ND vs. MSU matchup, yesterday in our “A Rare Opportunity” piece.  The other is the marquee SEC game of the week.  No, not Bama at Arkansas, as that will be not be much of a game (if the rumors of Wilson being held out, are true).  The Florida Gators travel to Knoxville, in an attempt to knockout the Vols for the eighth straight time.  Surprisingly, the Gators enter this weekend as the underdog.  I think the Vols success, to date, might just be fools’ gold.  I do not think much of NC State and Georgia State is merely an FCS team with a whopping 4 years of existence.  The Gators got a tough win in College Station, a week ago, and I think we’ll see more of the same, this week.  On to the picks…

Week 3 Picks:

To Win:

Florida at Tennessee

Utah State at Wisconsin

North Carolina at Louisville

To Cover:

Arkansas State +24 at Nebraska

Colorado State +10.5 at San Jose State

Miami (OH) +20.5 at Boise State

Week 3 Lock: 

Ohio State -17 vs Cal

Cal is a terrible team, and Ohio State has looked better than expected, which is a big statement.  This one is money in the bank. 

A Rare Opportunity

This weekend’s competition against Michigan State affords Brian Kelly and his Notre Dame Team a rare opportunity.  Expectations wills always be lofty for the University of Notre Dame, whether that be on the football field or in the classroom.  I think it is fair to say that sometimes these expectations are less than reasonable.  As a lifelong supporter of the University of Notre Dame, I understand this is part of our DNA.  This contributes to what makes our university unique.  It also can be the source of unwarranted scrutiny and ire. 

Anyone who watched the contest against Purdue would agree that the Irish struggled, against what is believed to be an inferior opponent.  I did expect this, to an extent; however, even I suggested that the Boilermakers did not have the talent to complete the upset.  I do think I was wrong, though.  Purdue could have walked out of ND Stadium with a win; however, they did not.  So, our record is now 2 wins and 0 losses, the same as it would have been with a 100 point margin of victory.  The discourse and vitriol spewed on various Notre Dame “fan” boards, across the interwebs, might convince you that we, in fact, lost that game and Kelly now has the program headed in the wrong direction. 

As ridiculous of an overreaction this is, an opportunity now arises for Kelly.  He has a chance to lead an Irish football team into a game, which they are not expected to win.  All 8 CBS experts picked Sparty, with 7 of the 8 picking them to cover, as well.  Phil Steele, who is in my opinion the most respected and accurate college football analyst, has also picked MSU.  The line for this game opened at ND +3.5 (meaning MSU is favored by 3.5 points) and has since been pushed to ND +6.  This indicates that the vast majority of people are betting on the Spartans to win by more than the proscribed line.  Adam Kramer, of KegsnEggsBlog.com (@KegsnEggs), indicated that 87% of all bets have taken MSU.  This is obviously an overwhelming majority. 

How rare is this?  In 2011, ND was favored in all but two games.  No big deal, you say.  Consider this, ND’s 2011 schedule featured 3 top 10 teams, 2 additional top 20 teams, and 3 additional bowl teams.  You mean to tell me that ND was favored to beat all but two of those teams?!  Rare (and somewhat irrational), indeed.

A game featuring two very evenly matched opponents, is typically not this one-sided in terms of predictions.  It would probably not shock most Irish fans if we won this contest, but it would surely shock some without vested rooting interest.  I have gone on record, back in our ND Football Prospectus, as saying this will be a loss.  And two games into the season, I am sticking with this assessment; however, I do think the Irish are every bit as talented and capable, as the Spartans.  In fact, my preseason p&e ratings ranked the Irish exactly one spot ahead of MSU.  The intangibles are what drive me to my assumption. 

Both teams are very evenly matched on both sides of the ball.  On offense, however, I think I would rather take my chances with a senior (academically, RS JR) starting at home versus a sophomore (RS Frosh) starting his first true road contest.  I love Everett Golson and think he is a future star on the college football landscape; however, it would be unfair to expect him to not make mistakes under these conditions.  I think we will make one or two more mistakes than MSU, which will directly lead to our defeat. 

So, go ahead and throw me into the doubter pile with all the others.  My name is, in fact, Thomas – yeah, that’s a Bible reference).  I would be happy to be wrong about this one.  And please note that my outlook on this team, and especially the ND program, is far from grim.  This is just more of a compliment to MSU.  I think very highly of their coach, and their 2012 team.  If the Irish win on Saturday, this will be a huge statement, and it will likely have significant implications on the national landscape of college football, this season.  And despite my prediction, this opportunity has me more excited than any other in a long, long time.

Week 2 Outlook

Let us start Week 2 with an apology for missing our Week 1 preview.  We could always go back and add it, and while it might be extremely accurate, it would probably not be of much value, now.  So, let’s just go ahead and sink our teeth into what should be a juicy week 2.

Anyone who read our preseason poll articles is aware that Ohio was our highest-rated non-BCS team.  So, the “upset”, of Penn State over the weekend, should not come as much of a surprise.  Also, in our response to comments on our blog, we did pick Alabama to win over Michigan, despite ranking the Wolverines higher, which is a result of a down year in the B1G.  Florida, Virginia Tech, and Michigan State all looked shaky in wins; however, the only other NDftB Preseason Top 25 team to lose was our No. 22 team, Vanderbilt.  The ‘Dores dropped a close one to our preseason No. 34 team, South Carolina.  I expect Vandy to bounce back in a big way at Northwestern tomorrow. 

There are two matchups this week with big implications on our preseason poll:  Georgia (our title pick) at Missouri and UCF at Ohio State.  To say I’m a little nervous about our title favorite this weekend, is like saying I’d be a little happy to win the lottery.  Mizzou fans have touted this as the biggest game in Missouri football history.  That alone, scares me.  Add to that, that I think Missouri is an extremely talented and underrated football team, and this could spell disaster for UGA.  I will not go so far, to pick the Tigers³ , but I’d be shocked if this one does not go to the wire. 

I do think the Buckeyes should be worried, however.  Central Florida probably does not inspire opponents as much as an SEC foe would, but Ohio State could meet the same outcome if they do not take this game seriously.  Again, I’ll shy away from picking the upset, but I do like the Golden Knights to cover. 

As for our beloved Irish, I could not be happier with the opening game against the perennially under-valued and under-appreciated Midshipmen.  Golson looked good for a first-time starter, the lines were dominant, and no one was injured.  It was an overall great day for the Irish.  I think we will start to come back down to earth against the Boilermakers.  Purdue will be improved from the team the Irish trounced a year ago.  I do not think they are capable of an upset, but I expect an ugly game from over-confident Notre Dame team.  Final verdict, ND wins by less than two TDs. 

Week 2 Upset Picks:

To Win:

South Florida at Nevada

Illinois at Arizona State

Kent State at Kentucky

To Cover:

UCF +18.5 at Ohio State

Utah State +7 over Utah

UTEP +8.5 at Ole Miss

Louisiana Monroe +30.5 at Arkansas

Preseason Rankings Comparison

Last week the official preseason rankings were released for the Coaches’ Poll, which is one of two “human” polls included in the BCS formula.  I took this opportunity to update my own preseason rankings, as the dynamic world of college football has offered some new circumstances for a couple of teams.  Most notably, my #1 team, UGA, booted their leading rusher from a year ago, Isaiah Crowell.  Despite their loss, I still project the Bulldogs to finish first.  Crowell was a good college back, last year, but I was less impressed than most with his performance.  Statistically, Isaiah was only marginally better (if any) than UGA’s other backs.  Add two talented freshmen and I think this loss is substantially mitigated. 

FSU, my #3 preseason team, suffered a notable loss, as well.  Senior, starting CB, Greg Reid, was dismissed shortly after his recent arrest.  Luckily, the ‘Noles are plenty deep on defense.  Xavier Rhodes is still their number 1 cover guy, and whoever fills the spot vacated by Reid’s departure will have LaMarcus Joyner covering his hide.  Things could be worse in Tallahassee.  Despite the numerous changes, over the past two months, my rankings were static.  So, how do my rankings compare to the Coaches’ Poll?  See the side by side comparison below

Coaches’ Poll

1.       LSU

2.       Alabama

3.       USC

4.       Oklahoma

5.       Oregon

6.       Georgia

7.       Florida State

8.       Michigan

9.       South Carolina

10.   Arkansas

11.   West Virginia

12.   Wisconsin

13.   Michigan State

14.   Clemson

15.   Texas

16.   Nebraska

17.   TCU

18.   Stanford

19.   Oklahoma State

20.   Virginia Tech

21.   Kansas State

22.   Boise State

23.   Florida

24.   Notre Dame

25.   Auburn

NDftB Poll

1.       Georgia

2.       USC

3.       FSU

4.       LSU

5.       Michigan

6.       Oregon

7.       Oklahoma

8.       Alabama

9.       Oklahoma State

10.   TCU

11.   South Florida

12.   Ohio

13.   North Carolina

14.   Ohio State

15.   Florida

16.   Virginia Tech

17.   Utah State

18.   West Virginia

19.   UCF

20.   Arkansas

21.   Vanderbilt

22.   Michigan State

23.   Missouri

24.   Notre Dame

25.   Texas

Some obvious omissions from the Coaches’ Poll are Ohio State and North Carolina, which are not eligible for the poll due to their postseason bans.  Ohio and Utah State received no love from the Coaches’ Poll, either.  This however, is not much of a surprise, as I would not expect these “mid-major” programs, lacking the name brand, to receive preseason acclaim.  Although, I expect that both of these programs will push their way into the picture in the early to middle part of the season.  Ohio has a chance to grab headlines in week one at Penn State, while Utah State lines up against Utah and Wisconsin in weeks 2 and 3, respectively.

Other omissions were South Florida, UCF, Vanderbilt, and Missouri.  Louisville opens the season as the Big East favorite, finishing just outside the top 25 (27^th) in the Coaches’ Poll.  However, I think the title goes through Tampa and the Bulls.  This becomes more likely if Aaron Lynch is granted a waiver from the NCAA, which may be unlikely at this juncture.  UCF was slammed with a postseason ban, as well; however, the Knights plan to appeal this NCAA’s ruling (good luck).  So, it is unclear whether they were excluded from this list due to their ban or due to the coaches’ collective opinion on this team.  Either way, I think they are severely underrated. 

I have said on this site, numerous times, that the SEC East is my pick for the most difficult division in football for 2012.  In accordance with this thinking, I think you can “buy low” on both Missouri and Vanderbilt.  The Commodores (That’s Vandy for those who didn’t know, and don’t be ashamed.  I’m sure there were plenty.) failed to receive one vote in the Coaches’ Poll.  Why should they?  They did finish 2011 with more losses than wins.  Luckily for the ‘Dores, 2012 is a new season, and another chance for second year head coach, James Franklin, to make waves. 

Speaking of James Franklin (coincidentally the name of Mizzou’s starting QB), this dual threat QB will be one of the more dynamic offensive players in the SEC this year.  He has a new toy to play with in 6’6” blue chip receiver, Dorial Green-Beckham.  Henry Josey, perhaps the most underrated RB in the country, returns from an injury that cut short his 2011 season, in which he averaged an astounding 8.06 yards per carry.  Missouri will surely face a difficult schedule, facing off against the SEC East and drawing Alabama from the West.  However, I think the Tigers Part III (I’ll let LSU and Auburn fans debate who is Part I and Part II) will catch some foes sleeping – at least early on.  In fact, I am more than slightly worried about my title favorite, UGA, running into a buzz saw in week 2 at Missouri. 

Elsewhere, the coaches would clearly disapprove of my treatment of the state of South Carolina, as I excluded both of the state’s flagship programs from my rankings.  My P&E ratings were not big fans of either South Carolina or Clemson, who were ranked 9^th and 14^th, respectively, in the Coaches’ Poll.  My P&E ratings slotted these teams at 17 and 38, respectively.  However, I ranked each team a little lower (34^th and 45^th), based on the difficulty of their schedules.  I expect both of these teams to disappoint, relative to their exceedingly high preseason expectations.  Unfortunately for Clemson, they might actually be a better team in 2012; however, I would be shocked in the record reflected that assertion.   

Additionally, I think the coaches are overshooting on a pair of B1G programs.  Wisconsin had a magical season in 2011, undercut by two Hail Mary losses.  However, gone are several key pieces, none bigger (not literally) than Russell Wilson.  Wilson was a special player, with more talent than anyone currently playing the position for the Badgers.  They are more capable of replacing the third of their contributing OL; however, I still believe the losses are too much for Wiscy to get by unscathed.  Nebraska is the other team.  For two seasons in a row, the Huskers have limped to a finish.  I do not think they will register more than 8 wins (regular season), in 2012. 

Lastly, I think Chris Peterson will have his toughest year as Head Coach of Boise State.  Say what you want about Kellen Moore, his weak arm, and his Kermit-the-Frog voice; however, he was an extremely efficient passer and tremendous leader.  His loss is compounded by the gutting of the rest of the team.  Boise lost its leading rusher (Doug Martin), leading receiver (Tyler Shoemaker), and 9 of its top 10 leading tacklers.  I am a big fan of Chris Peterson; however, that is simply too much production to replace at once.  I would be impressed if the Broncos even sniffed the top 25 in 2012.  

Again, I know this is an exercise in futility, as preseason polls are useless, at best.  However, I thought it would be fun to track NDftB’s projections, relative to the college football deities.  Game on, coaches!  Football in 24 days.

2012 Conference Projections

I hate to distract college football fans from the current hot topic: playoffs;  However, considering we must live through two full seasons (and 2.5 offseasons) until we even get our first glimpse, I thought some might want to read and think about the upcoming 2012 college football season.  We are laying it all out on-the-line.  I recommend you save this link and return to ridicule us after the regular season, as that is what we college football fans do best. 

The Official NDftB 2012 Conference Projections:

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic		Coastal
Team	Standing	Team	Standing
Florida State	1	North Carolina	1
Clemson	2	Virginia Tech	2
NC State	3	Georgia Tech	3
Boston College	4	Virginia	4
Maryland	5	Miami (FL)	5
Wake Forest	6	Duke	6

Look for the Seminoles to run rampant through a weak ACC.  Also, keep in mind that UNC is banned from all post-season activity; so, FSU will have to beat Virginia Tech twice to win the conference.  Despite it being a weak year, the ACC Title Game could have BCS National Title Game implications, as I expect FSU to be a serious player in the final standings.

Big Ten
Leaders		Legends
Team	Standing	Team	Standing
Ohio State	1	Michigan	1
Wisconsin	2	Michigan State	2
Penn State	3	Nebraska	3
Illinois	4	Iowa	4
Purdue	5	Minnesota	5
Indiana	6	Northwestern	6

I expect the Buckeyes to join the Tar Heels as a division champion not allowed to compete for a conference championship.  Ohio State's postseason ban should clear a path for Wisconsin to make their repeat trip, where I expect Michigan to end the hopes for a third-consecutive BCS game.

Big East
Team	Standing
South Florida	1
Pittsburgh	2
Louisville	3
Cincinnati	4
Rutgers	5
Temple	6
Connecticut	7
Syracuse	8

Most have the Cardinals projected to finish in the poll position; however, I like a resurgent USF team to take the title.  Also, I expect newcomer, Temple, to finish higher than 2010 Conference Champion, UConn, who appears to be trending in the wrong direction.

Big XII
Team	Standing
Oklahoma	1
Oklahoma State	2
TCU	3
Texas	4
West Virginia	4
Kansas State	6
Iowa State	7
Baylor	8
Texas Tech	9
Kansas	10

I expect the Big XII to be tight, again in 2012.  Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and TCU all project to within just a few points of each other in my preseason power & efficiency (P&E) ratings.  Being the new guy, I expect TCU to face more adversity, and Oklahoma gets the Cowboys in Norman.  Ipso facto, the Sooners should take the 2012 Conference Championship.

Conference USA
East		West
Team	Standing	Team	Standing
UCF	1	Houston	1
Southern Miss	2	Tulsa	2
Marshall	3	SMU	3
East Carolina	4	UTEP	4
UAB	5	Rice	5
Memphis	6	Tulane	6

I would be surprised if the conference champion does not come from the East division.  UCF and Southern Miss look to be the class of the conference.

Independents
Team	Standing
Notre Dame	1
BYU	2
Navy	3
Army	4

It is pretty silly to even rank these teams, as there is not a clear way to evaluate all four teams, relative to each other.  That said, based on final P&E ratings, I expect ND to finish above the rest.

Mid-Atlantic Conference
East		West
Team	Standing	Team	Standing
Ohio	1	Northern Illinois	1
Kent State	2	Toledo	2
Bowling Green	3	Western Mich	3
Miami (OH)	4	Central Mich	4
Buffalo	5	Eastern Mich	5
Akron	6	Ball State	6
UMass	7

My darkhorse Non-AQ BCS qualifier, Ohio, should be able to stroll into the conference championship, where they will likely face Northern Illinois, who seems to have a permanent spot in this championship.

Mountain West Conference
Team	Standing
Nevada	1
Fresno State	2
Boise State	3
Wyoming	4
Colorado State	5
San Diego State	6
Air Force	7
Hawai'i	8
UNLV	9
New Mexico	10

Shockingly, I project the Broncos to finish behind two newcomers in 2012: Nevada and Fresno State.  Don't worry, though, some things will stay the same: Bob Davie will surely help New Mexico maintain a firm grasp on the bottom of the conference standings.

Pac 12
North		South
Team	Standing	Team	Standing
Oregon	1	USC	1
Stanford	2	UCLA	2
Washington	3	Utah	3
Oregon State	4	Arizona State	4
California	5	Arizona	5
Washington St	6	Colorado	6

Clearly the class of a down Pac 12, the Ducks and Trojans should face (for a second time of the season) in the Conference Championship.  Like the ACC, however, this game will have significant BCS ramifications.  Oregon will likely be the only thing between USC and an appearance in the BCS National Championship Game. 

Southeastern Conference
East		West
Team	Standing	Team	Standing
Georgia	1	LSU	1
Florida	2	Alabama	2
Vanderbilt	2	Arkansas	3
Missouri	4	Mississippi St	4
South Carolina	5	Auburn	5
Tennessee	6	Texas A&M	5
Kentucky	7	Mississippi	7

My two division champions are probably not a surprise; however, I have already taken some flack for projecting UGA as my National Champ.  My projection for the Gamecocks will also likely draw some scoffs; however, as I alluded in the Top 25 article, the SEC East will be the best division in football, for my money.  Expect many exciting games from that bunch.  Georgia is still the class of the division, in my opinion.  The more battle-tested Bulldogs should fare better against the Fightin' Les's, in 2012.

Sun Belt Conference
Team	Standing
Florida Int	1
LA-Monroe	2
Arkansas State	3
LA-Lafayette	3
North Texas	5
Troy	6
Florida Atlantic	7
Wstrn Kentucky	8
Middle Tenn St	9
South Alabama	10

Welcome to the FBS, Jaguars.  Now take a seat on the floor.  There should be a clear divide between the top four in this league and the remaining members.  I expect FIU to take the title, though.

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Standing
Utah State	1
Louisiana Tech	2
Idaho	3
New Mexico St	4
San Jose State	5
Texas State	6
UTSA	7

This is easily the weakest conference in all of college football.  I am not even sure this would be the best conference in FCS.  Utah State and La Tech should run roughshod through this competition.