Status Update: Week 3 P&E (Power & Efficiency) Ratings

If you have read any of our preview articles, you probably noticed a reference to P&E ratings.  This is a method, created to evaluate teams relative to one another.  This rating system is subjectively based on the premise that a team’s ability to defeat another team is a direct result of their ability to move the ball and prevent its opponent from doing the same.  A team’s ability to move the ball (and alternatively, their ability to prevent their opponent from moving the ball) is further measured by how quickly, or efficiently, this can be accomplished. 

I know this probably sounds complicated, but it is actually a very simple, rudimentary tool that, within a range, has been nearly 80% accurate this season, to date.  Please note that this is not a merit-based ranking system (i.e. teams are not ranked based on win/losses or margin of victory).  It is, however, adjusted for the strength of each team’s opponent. 

Our preseason top 25 was a mixture of a team’s ending 2011 P&E Rating and a percentage of production returning, all compared to each team’s schedule.  The result was a projected number of wins, losses, and matchups within a certain range, which I deemed to be “toss-ups”.  So, I derived a poll, based on projected wins and what I subjectively believed to be a team’s ability to replace lost production.  For example, I believed that Alabama was in a much better position to replace their lost production than Boise State.  Thus, Alabama received a much higher relative ranking (relative to their preseason P&E Rating), than Boise.

All of this is to say that this rating system is not comparable to any merit-based ranking, nor is it even comparable to our very own preseason top 25, which was done as fun exercise and nothing more. 

An important note about this week’s update of our ratings is that the 2012 sample size is entirely too small to use, by itself.  Since I exclude games played against non-FBS opponents (about 38% of all games played, to date), some teams only have one game of relevant data in 2012.  This is obviously not enough, from which I (or anyone) should draw conclusions.  Therefore, the preseason P&E Ratings are incorporated into this update.  The preseason ratings will phase out of each team’s rating, when enough games have been played. 

Our full P&E Ratings can be seen on the right side of this page, underneath the schedules.  However, I want to point out a couple of things that caught my eye. 

·         NEWS FLASH:  ALABAMA IS RIDICULOUSLY GOOD.  Shocking, I know.  Again the Tide, comfortably sit atop my P&E Ratings.  From 2011 to 2012, no team lost more ability than Alabama.  I am amazed at how easily they can replace that kind of talent. 

·         Through two weeks Florida has been downright impressive.   They were my only pick to follow-through in Week 3.  And it’s clear why. 

·         Despite a tough week 2 loss to UCLA, Nebraska has been very good.  Currently the only offense playing better than the Cornhuskers belongs to Dana Holgerson’s West Virginia Mountaineers.

·         Stanford’s rating is driven by their defense.  As you would expect, offensively the Cardinal is not there yet.

·         I am very high on FSU.  Their low ranking is due to them only playing one, below average, FBS team, so far.  They will likely climb significantly after this week.

·         It appears that I undersold South Carolina, UCLA, and Mississippi State.  All three of these teams have played above their preseason ratings and into the P&E Ratings’ Top 25. 

·         Through 3 weeks the most impressive teams (in terms of performance, relative to their preseason ratings):  Texas Tech, San Jose State, Arizona, Arizona State, and Purdue.

·         Through 3 weeks the most disappointing teams (in terms of performance, relative to their preseason ratings):  Southern Miss, UNC, Oklahoma (only 1 game), Arkansas, and Virginia Tech.