Week 3 was a perfect example as to why I do not bet on college football games. My “lock” of the week (THE Ohio State -17) nearly lost outright. I guess that serves me right for calling it a “lock”. Stupid. And I was a dreadful 1-6 (2-5 against the spread). I was gladly wrong about the Irish, who played perhaps their best game of the Brian Kelly Era. Florida followed through, however, and dominated the second half against an overrated Tennessee team.
In fact, the Gators have been extremely impressive through three weeks, hence their #2 rating in my P&E poll. They have a gimme this week against a dreadful Kentucky Wildcat team. However, there are two other intriguing SEC East matchups this week. UGA, my preseason #1, has not quite looked like a #1 in 2012 (I addressed this in the comments to the ratings update article yesterday). They should get a test from a pesky Vandy team, in Athens, this weekend. Despite the two losses, I still believe in the Commodores. In fact, I think the two losses could play in Vandy’s favor this weekend. I still like Bulldogs to win; however, Vandy should cover the 16 point spread.
The second matchup features the newly minted Tigers3, visiting the South Carolina Gamecocks. South Carolina would appear to have the edge in this game; however, I again think this one will be closer than Vegas would have you believe. Both teams’ quarterbacks are a little banged up; however, I expect both to play. I really like the way Mizzou responded to their letdown against UGA in week 2. Without their best player, they were able to dispatch one of the biggest surprises in this early season. Meanwhile, the Gamecocks were taken to the wire by a pesky Vanderbilt team and then dispatched two lesser opponents without batting an eye. I like USCe in this matchup because it’s in Columbia. But Mizzou should cover.
The VIP matchup, this weekend, is the only one to feature two teams in the top 10 of P&E Ratings. Michigan remains in the top 10, largely due to their lofty preseason rating (#3 overall). They have yet to perform to this level in 2012. However, they have dynamic talent at various positions, namely QB with Denard Robinson. “Shoelaces” has made a career of decimating ND. Just when it looked like the Irish had figured out the Denard puzzle in 2011, he unleashed probably the best 4th quarter to ever be played against an Irish defense on his way to leading the Wolverines to a miraculous win. Heartbroken ND fans still have a hard time watching/talking/thinking about this dark moment. Through 3 games, ND has been considerably more impressive in 2012. Though, that hardly means anything, given the history of this game. Talent generally does not disappear. It’s not always fully utilized; however, it can show itself at any given moment. This is why this game scares the crap out of me. The key to this game will be when Michigan has the ball, whether ND’s front 3 or 4 can get to Denard. If ND gets consistent pressure without a blitz, as it has been able to do so far in 2012, then ND should be able to stop Michigan enough times. I think our offense is capable of scoring 20-30 points on Michigan’s defense. The key is keeping the Wolverines below, or on the lower end of that range. Final prediction: Irish win a close one.
My Week 4 Picks: I’m doing this a little differently, now. I’m no longer limiting myself to only “upset” picks, as that gives me a significantly lower pool to play with. I’m going to pick all seven games against the spread. If you follow our twitter feed, which I can almost guarantee you don’t, then you were privy to our first pick of the week.
1) BYU +8 over Boise State (already a success – much better start this week)
2) Marshall -3 at Rice
3) Wyoming -1.5 at Idaho
4) San Jose State +2.5 at San Diego State
5) Missouri +10.5 at South Carolina
6) Vanderbilt +14.5 at Georgia
7) New Mexico +6.5 at New Mexico State
Yes, that last pick is correct. I'm actually picking Boob Davies' team with the points. I'm in disbelief, too.
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