This weekend’s competition against Michigan State affords Brian Kelly and his Notre Dame Team a rare opportunity. Expectations wills always be lofty for the University of Notre Dame, whether that be on the football field or in the classroom. I think it is fair to say that sometimes these expectations are less than reasonable. As a lifelong supporter of the University of Notre Dame, I understand this is part of our DNA. This contributes to what makes our university unique. It also can be the source of unwarranted scrutiny and ire.
Anyone who watched the contest against Purdue would agree that the Irish struggled, against what is believed to be an inferior opponent. I did expect this, to an extent; however, even I suggested that the Boilermakers did not have the talent to complete the upset. I do think I was wrong, though. Purdue could have walked out of ND Stadium with a win; however, they did not. So, our record is now 2 wins and 0 losses, the same as it would have been with a 100 point margin of victory. The discourse and vitriol spewed on various Notre Dame “fan” boards, across the interwebs, might convince you that we, in fact, lost that game and Kelly now has the program headed in the wrong direction.
As ridiculous of an overreaction this is, an opportunity now arises for Kelly. He has a chance to lead an Irish football team into a game, which they are not expected to win. All 8 CBS experts picked Sparty, with 7 of the 8 picking them to cover, as well. Phil Steele, who is in my opinion the most respected and accurate college football analyst, has also picked MSU. The line for this game opened at ND +3.5 (meaning MSU is favored by 3.5 points) and has since been pushed to ND +6. This indicates that the vast majority of people are betting on the Spartans to win by more than the proscribed line. Adam Kramer, of KegsnEggsBlog.com (@KegsnEggs), indicated that 87% of all bets have taken MSU. This is obviously an overwhelming majority.
How rare is this? In 2011, ND was favored in all but two games. No big deal, you say. Consider this, ND’s 2011 schedule featured 3 top 10 teams, 2 additional top 20 teams, and 3 additional bowl teams. You mean to tell me that ND was favored to beat all but two of those teams?! Rare (and somewhat irrational), indeed.
A game featuring two very evenly matched opponents, is typically not this one-sided in terms of predictions. It would probably not shock most Irish fans if we won this contest, but it would surely shock some without vested rooting interest. I have gone on record, back in our ND Football Prospectus, as saying this will be a loss. And two games into the season, I am sticking with this assessment; however, I do think the Irish are every bit as talented and capable, as the Spartans. In fact, my preseason p&e ratings ranked the Irish exactly one spot ahead of MSU. The intangibles are what drive me to my assumption.
Both teams are very evenly matched on both sides of the ball. On offense, however, I think I would rather take my chances with a senior (academically, RS JR) starting at home versus a sophomore (RS Frosh) starting his first true road contest. I love Everett Golson and think he is a future star on the college football landscape; however, it would be unfair to expect him to not make mistakes under these conditions. I think we will make one or two more mistakes than MSU, which will directly lead to our defeat.
So, go ahead and throw me into the doubter pile with all the others. My name is, in fact, Thomas – yeah, that’s a Bible reference). I would be happy to be wrong about this one. And please note that my outlook on this team, and especially the ND program, is far from grim. This is just more of a compliment to MSU. I think very highly of their coach, and their 2012 team. If the Irish win on Saturday, this will be a huge statement, and it will likely have significant implications on the national landscape of college football, this season. And despite my prediction, this opportunity has me more excited than any other in a long, long time.
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