Last week the official preseason rankings were released for the Coaches’ Poll, which is one of two “human” polls included in the BCS formula. I took this opportunity to update my own preseason rankings, as the dynamic world of college football has offered some new circumstances for a couple of teams. Most notably, my #1 team, UGA, booted their leading rusher from a year ago, Isaiah Crowell. Despite their loss, I still project the Bulldogs to finish first. Crowell was a good college back, last year, but I was less impressed than most with his performance. Statistically, Isaiah was only marginally better (if any) than UGA’s other backs. Add two talented freshmen and I think this loss is substantially mitigated.
FSU, my #3 preseason team, suffered a notable loss, as well. Senior, starting CB, Greg Reid, was dismissed shortly after his recent arrest. Luckily, the ‘Noles are plenty deep on defense. Xavier Rhodes is still their number 1 cover guy, and whoever fills the spot vacated by Reid’s departure will have LaMarcus Joyner covering his hide. Things could be worse in Tallahassee. Despite the numerous changes, over the past two months, my rankings were static. So, how do my rankings compare to the Coaches’ Poll? See the side by side comparison below
Coaches’ Poll
1. LSU
2. Alabama
3. USC
4. Oklahoma
5. Oregon
6. Georgia
7. Florida State
8. Michigan
9. South Carolina
10. Arkansas
11. West Virginia
12. Wisconsin
13. Michigan State
14. Clemson
15. Texas
16. Nebraska
17. TCU
18. Stanford
19. Oklahoma State
20. Virginia Tech
21. Kansas State
22. Boise State
23. Florida
24. Notre Dame
25. Auburn
NDftB Poll
1. Georgia
2. USC
3. FSU
4. LSU
5. Michigan
6. Oregon
7. Oklahoma
8. Alabama
9. Oklahoma State
10. TCU
11. South Florida
12. Ohio
13. North Carolina
14. Ohio State
15. Florida
16. Virginia Tech
17. Utah State
18. West Virginia
19. UCF
20. Arkansas
21. Vanderbilt
22. Michigan State
23. Missouri
24. Notre Dame
25. Texas
Some obvious omissions from the Coaches’ Poll are Ohio State and North Carolina, which are not eligible for the poll due to their postseason bans. Ohio and Utah State received no love from the Coaches’ Poll, either. This however, is not much of a surprise, as I would not expect these “mid-major” programs, lacking the name brand, to receive preseason acclaim. Although, I expect that both of these programs will push their way into the picture in the early to middle part of the season. Ohio has a chance to grab headlines in week one at Penn State, while Utah State lines up against Utah and Wisconsin in weeks 2 and 3, respectively.
Other omissions were South Florida, UCF, Vanderbilt, and Missouri. Louisville opens the season as the Big East favorite, finishing just outside the top 25 (27th) in the Coaches’ Poll. However, I think the title goes through Tampa and the Bulls. This becomes more likely if Aaron Lynch is granted a waiver from the NCAA, which may be unlikely at this juncture. UCF was slammed with a postseason ban, as well; however, the Knights plan to appeal this NCAA’s ruling (good luck). So, it is unclear whether they were excluded from this list due to their ban or due to the coaches’ collective opinion on this team. Either way, I think they are severely underrated.
I have said on this site, numerous times, that the SEC East is my pick for the most difficult division in football for 2012. In accordance with this thinking, I think you can “buy low” on both Missouri and Vanderbilt. The Commodores (That’s Vandy for those who didn’t know, and don’t be ashamed. I’m sure there were plenty.) failed to receive one vote in the Coaches’ Poll. Why should they? They did finish 2011 with more losses than wins. Luckily for the ‘Dores, 2012 is a new season, and another chance for second year head coach, James Franklin, to make waves.
Speaking of James Franklin (coincidentally the name of Mizzou’s starting QB), this dual threat QB will be one of the more dynamic offensive players in the SEC this year. He has a new toy to play with in 6’6” blue chip receiver, Dorial Green-Beckham. Henry Josey, perhaps the most underrated RB in the country, returns from an injury that cut short his 2011 season, in which he averaged an astounding 8.06 yards per carry. Missouri will surely face a difficult schedule, facing off against the SEC East and drawing Alabama from the West. However, I think the Tigers Part III (I’ll let LSU and Auburn fans debate who is Part I and Part II) will catch some foes sleeping – at least early on. In fact, I am more than slightly worried about my title favorite, UGA, running into a buzz saw in week 2 at Missouri.
Elsewhere, the coaches would clearly disapprove of my treatment of the state of South Carolina, as I excluded both of the state’s flagship programs from my rankings. My P&E ratings were not big fans of either South Carolina or Clemson, who were ranked 9th and 14th, respectively, in the Coaches’ Poll. My P&E ratings slotted these teams at 17 and 38, respectively. However, I ranked each team a little lower (34th and 45th), based on the difficulty of their schedules. I expect both of these teams to disappoint, relative to their exceedingly high preseason expectations. Unfortunately for Clemson, they might actually be a better team in 2012; however, I would be shocked in the record reflected that assertion.
Additionally, I think the coaches are overshooting on a pair of B1G programs. Wisconsin had a magical season in 2011, undercut by two Hail Mary losses. However, gone are several key pieces, none bigger (not literally) than Russell Wilson. Wilson was a special player, with more talent than anyone currently playing the position for the Badgers. They are more capable of replacing the third of their contributing OL; however, I still believe the losses are too much for Wiscy to get by unscathed. Nebraska is the other team. For two seasons in a row, the Huskers have limped to a finish. I do not think they will register more than 8 wins (regular season), in 2012.
Lastly, I think Chris Peterson will have his toughest year as Head Coach of Boise State. Say what you want about Kellen Moore, his weak arm, and his Kermit-the-Frog voice; however, he was an extremely efficient passer and tremendous leader. His loss is compounded by the gutting of the rest of the team. Boise lost its leading rusher (Doug Martin), leading receiver (Tyler Shoemaker), and 9 of its top 10 leading tacklers. I am a big fan of Chris Peterson; however, that is simply too much production to replace at once. I would be impressed if the Broncos even sniffed the top 25 in 2012.
Again, I know this is an exercise in futility, as preseason polls are useless, at best. However, I thought it would be fun to track NDftB’s projections, relative to the college football deities. Game on, coaches! Football in 24 days.
