2012 Conference Projections

I hate to distract college football fans from the current hot topic: playoffs;  However, considering we must live through two full seasons (and 2.5 offseasons) until we even get our first glimpse, I thought some might want to read and think about the upcoming 2012 college football season.  We are laying it all out on-the-line.  I recommend you save this link and return to ridicule us after the regular season, as that is what we college football fans do best. 

The Official NDftB 2012 Conference Projections:

Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic		Coastal
Team	Standing	Team	Standing
Florida State	1	North Carolina	1
Clemson	2	Virginia Tech	2
NC State	3	Georgia Tech	3
Boston College	4	Virginia	4
Maryland	5	Miami (FL)	5
Wake Forest	6	Duke	6

Look for the Seminoles to run rampant through a weak ACC.  Also, keep in mind that UNC is banned from all post-season activity; so, FSU will have to beat Virginia Tech twice to win the conference.  Despite it being a weak year, the ACC Title Game could have BCS National Title Game implications, as I expect FSU to be a serious player in the final standings.

Big Ten
Leaders		Legends
Team	Standing	Team	Standing
Ohio State	1	Michigan	1
Wisconsin	2	Michigan State	2
Penn State	3	Nebraska	3
Illinois	4	Iowa	4
Purdue	5	Minnesota	5
Indiana	6	Northwestern	6

I expect the Buckeyes to join the Tar Heels as a division champion not allowed to compete for a conference championship.  Ohio State's postseason ban should clear a path for Wisconsin to make their repeat trip, where I expect Michigan to end the hopes for a third-consecutive BCS game.

Big East
Team	Standing
South Florida	1
Pittsburgh	2
Louisville	3
Cincinnati	4
Rutgers	5
Temple	6
Connecticut	7
Syracuse	8

Most have the Cardinals projected to finish in the poll position; however, I like a resurgent USF team to take the title.  Also, I expect newcomer, Temple, to finish higher than 2010 Conference Champion, UConn, who appears to be trending in the wrong direction.

Big XII
Team	Standing
Oklahoma	1
Oklahoma State	2
TCU	3
Texas	4
West Virginia	4
Kansas State	6
Iowa State	7
Baylor	8
Texas Tech	9
Kansas	10

I expect the Big XII to be tight, again in 2012.  Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and TCU all project to within just a few points of each other in my preseason power & efficiency (P&E) ratings.  Being the new guy, I expect TCU to face more adversity, and Oklahoma gets the Cowboys in Norman.  Ipso facto, the Sooners should take the 2012 Conference Championship.

Conference USA
East		West
Team	Standing	Team	Standing
UCF	1	Houston	1
Southern Miss	2	Tulsa	2
Marshall	3	SMU	3
East Carolina	4	UTEP	4
UAB	5	Rice	5
Memphis	6	Tulane	6

I would be surprised if the conference champion does not come from the East division.  UCF and Southern Miss look to be the class of the conference.

Independents
Team	Standing
Notre Dame	1
BYU	2
Navy	3
Army	4

It is pretty silly to even rank these teams, as there is not a clear way to evaluate all four teams, relative to each other.  That said, based on final P&E ratings, I expect ND to finish above the rest.

Mid-Atlantic Conference
East		West
Team	Standing	Team	Standing
Ohio	1	Northern Illinois	1
Kent State	2	Toledo	2
Bowling Green	3	Western Mich	3
Miami (OH)	4	Central Mich	4
Buffalo	5	Eastern Mich	5
Akron	6	Ball State	6
UMass	7

My darkhorse Non-AQ BCS qualifier, Ohio, should be able to stroll into the conference championship, where they will likely face Northern Illinois, who seems to have a permanent spot in this championship.

Mountain West Conference
Team	Standing
Nevada	1
Fresno State	2
Boise State	3
Wyoming	4
Colorado State	5
San Diego State	6
Air Force	7
Hawai'i	8
UNLV	9
New Mexico	10

Shockingly, I project the Broncos to finish behind two newcomers in 2012: Nevada and Fresno State.  Don't worry, though, some things will stay the same: Bob Davie will surely help New Mexico maintain a firm grasp on the bottom of the conference standings.

Pac 12
North		South
Team	Standing	Team	Standing
Oregon	1	USC	1
Stanford	2	UCLA	2
Washington	3	Utah	3
Oregon State	4	Arizona State	4
California	5	Arizona	5
Washington St	6	Colorado	6

Clearly the class of a down Pac 12, the Ducks and Trojans should face (for a second time of the season) in the Conference Championship.  Like the ACC, however, this game will have significant BCS ramifications.  Oregon will likely be the only thing between USC and an appearance in the BCS National Championship Game. 

Southeastern Conference
East		West
Team	Standing	Team	Standing
Georgia	1	LSU	1
Florida	2	Alabama	2
Vanderbilt	2	Arkansas	3
Missouri	4	Mississippi St	4
South Carolina	5	Auburn	5
Tennessee	6	Texas A&M	5
Kentucky	7	Mississippi	7

My two division champions are probably not a surprise; however, I have already taken some flack for projecting UGA as my National Champ.  My projection for the Gamecocks will also likely draw some scoffs; however, as I alluded in the Top 25 article, the SEC East will be the best division in football, for my money.  Expect many exciting games from that bunch.  Georgia is still the class of the division, in my opinion.  The more battle-tested Bulldogs should fare better against the Fightin' Les's, in 2012.

Sun Belt Conference
Team	Standing
Florida Int	1
LA-Monroe	2
Arkansas State	3
LA-Lafayette	3
North Texas	5
Troy	6
Florida Atlantic	7
Wstrn Kentucky	8
Middle Tenn St	9
South Alabama	10

Welcome to the FBS, Jaguars.  Now take a seat on the floor.  There should be a clear divide between the top four in this league and the remaining members.  I expect FIU to take the title, though.

Western Athletic Conference
Team	Standing
Utah State	1
Louisiana Tech	2
Idaho	3
New Mexico St	4
San Jose State	5
Texas State	6
UTSA	7

This is easily the weakest conference in all of college football.  I am not even sure this would be the best conference in FCS.  Utah State and La Tech should run roughshod through this competition. 

2012 Pre-Season College Football Top 25

Pre-season rankings, in any sport, are about as useful as a three-legged horse.  The analysis and opinions provided by the many sets of pre-season publications will be worthless come September, when the actual season begins.  However, every spring and summer I cannot help myself.  I am enthralled by the various rankings by each outlet.  [Shout out to Phil Steele and Athlon, who are easily the best in the business, for my money.]  The masses helplessly declare that their university is way undervalued, or that team X is only ranked so that [fill in the blank] can sell magazines.  Naturally, I have developed my own ranking system.  I thought I would throw my semi-objective hat into the meaningless ring. 

First, I want to explain my ranking methodology.  There are three major components to my rankings: the ending 2011 P&E rankings, the amount of production returning in 2012, and subjective analysis of each team’s ability to replace any lost production.  All of these factors are weighted against a strength-of-schedule calculation, which is derived using the P&E rankings.  Briefly, P&E rankings are derived by comparing a team’s ability to move the ball versus its opponents, and vice versa, also considering the team’s ability to create and prevent “explosive” plays.  Explosive plays are defined as passes of 30+ yards, runs of 20+ yards, punt returns of 20+ yards, and kick-off returns of 40+ yards.  Factoring in such plays is based on the premise that creating (on offense) and limiting (on defense) such plays significantly enhances one’s odd of scoring.  The second component, production, is measured as yards (passing+rushing+receiving) and tackles.  Lastly, the third component is obviously subjective, however, necessary in my opinion.  Team A’s ability to replace its lost production will differ from Team B’s ability to do the same.  Thus, subjective analysis is necessary. 

Before we get into the rankings, let me acknowledge that my “formula” has inherent flaws.  I am readily aware that I will not be able to accurately project how well each team replaces its lost production, nor is relying on historical data full-proof.  However, my goal was to create the most accurate and objective ranking system possible.  And despite my self-deprecation, I know you are sitting on the edge of your seats right now.  Without further adieu:

1.       Georgia                                                       

2.       USC                                                            

3.       Florida State                                                

4.       LSU                                                             

5.       Michigan

6.       Oregon

7.       Oklahoma

8.       Alabama

9.       Oklahoma State

10.   TCU

11.   South Florida

12.   Ohio

13.   North Carolina    

14.   Ohio State

15.   Florida

16.   Virginia Tech

17.   Utah State

18.   West Virginia

19.   UCF

20.   Arkansas

21.   Vanderbilt

22.   Michigan State

23.   Missouri

24.   Notre Dame

25.   Texas

Most of the rankings, above, will not shock college football fans.  However, a few things caught my eye when I first tabulated this poll.  Georgia was the clear #1 based on their returning production.  Their schedule (which I calculated as the 24^th hardest) is actually easier than their 2011 slate (12^th hardest).  Nearly every key piece returns for a team that made the SEC Championship in 2011.  I think this will be the Bulldogs’ year. 

Stanford, Wisconsin, South Carolina, Clemson, and even Boise State have found their way onto most preseason polls.  However, my poll excludes each from the top 25 for various reasons.  Stanford, Wisconsin, and Boise State all lost key personnel from successful 2011 teams.  In all three cases, I do not expect the replacements to be able to replicate what their predecessors have done.  Obviously, Stanford (#26) lost its best QB, since Elway (maybe ever), but beyond that the Cardinal lost more than a third of its defensive production as well as its top receivers and offensive linemen.  Wisconsin (#31) lost playmaking quarterback, Russell Wilson, in addition to a quarter of its defensive production.  Boise (#72) lost nearly 60% of its defensive production and two-thirds of its offense.  I think the Broncos take a major step back in 2012. 

South Carolina (#34) is a victim of its schedule (6^th hardest), which is a direct result of the new and improved SEC East division (the toughest in 2012, in my opinion).  I believe the Gamecocks are a legitimate top 25 team (#18 in my Preseason P&E ratings); however, they will be lucky to win more than 8 games.  Lastly, Clemson (#45) is a bit of mystery.  They return a good amount of production; however, my final 2011 P&E ratings only valued the Tigers in the mid-50s.  I think the Tigers were pretenders in 2011 (this theory would certainly explain the Orange Bowl debacle); thus, I predict a better team in 2012, but a drop-off in wins (max 8). 

Ohio at 12 might surprise some, as well.  I certainly raised my eyebrows when my projection called for an undefeated season, which would include a win at Penn State.  The Nittany Lions are the only BCS foe for the preseason MAC favorite.  So, 12 and 0 is entirely possible for the Bobcats and 11 and 1 is probable.  However, I cannot see a serious at the BCS for two reasons: lack of preseason recognition (matters only for non-AQ schools) and very weak schedule. 

Utah State and UCF round out the non-AQ teams in my top 25. The schedules for each of these two are quite a bit tougher.  Utah State would have to upend Wisconsin (in Madison) and Utah (home), in order to run the table.  And UCF has even tougher sledding with an away game in Columbus, against the Buckeyes, and a home contest against the Missouri Tigers.  However, I think Utah State will run the table in the depleted WAC.  UCF faces a stiffer test in Conference USA, which is perhaps the 6^th toughest in the land; however, their biggest challenge comes against Southern Miss at home.  I expect both teams to win their respective conferences, outright.

I have not seen anyone project TCU in the top 10.  I was a little hesitant, myself, to put them so high.  However, they return almost everyone from a dynamic offense, which could be one of the best in the Big XII, if not the best.  The defense did lose nearly a third of its production from 2011; however, Gary Patterson always fields competent defenses.  I see the Big XII as a three team race.  I gave the Sooners the edge because they get Oklahoma State at home and TCU will surely face some challenges from 2012 being their first year in the conference.  I would be surprised in West Virginia or Texas are serious players in the conference championship; however, I do believe both will be quality teams, hence the top 25 rankings. 

Overall, this is a very bad year in the ACC.  Ironically, because of this, an ACC team might make the BCS National Championship for the first time since 2002.  FSU is clearly the class of the conference.  UNC and Virginia Tech, both of whom rank outside the top 20 in my preseason P&E ratings, find their way in to my top 15 and 20, respectively.  The only reason Clemson was left out of the top 25 is because of their tough non-conference slate, which includes the opener against Auburn (in Atlanta) and their season-ending rivalry against South Carolina. 

As I alluded previously, this year will be a coming out party for the SEC East.  Four of these schools landed in the top 10 of my preseason P&E ratings!  Obviously, they each have to play each other; so, their records will probably not reflect their quality.  Vanderbilt, at #21, is probably the most surprising.  The Commodores return almost everyone from a productive 2011 offense.  Underrated on defense a year ago, Vandy also returns better than two-thirds of their defensive production.  Couple those factors with the easiest schedule in the SEC and the fact that this program is in year 2 of James Franklin’s tenure and the arrow is pointing up for this program.

Notre Dame lands at #24 because I am trying to solicit readers.  Actually, the Irish are rated #18 in my preseason P&E ratings.  Facing the toughest schedule in the country, a year ago, ND disappointed most fans with an 8-5 record, largely a result of their own mistakes (-15 TO margin).  ND fans get little reprieve in 2012, facing what I project to be the 4^th toughest schedule, which includes 3 top ten teams and 5 in the top 26.  I think the Irish will field a much better team in 2012; however, the record is due for only marginal improvement, if any. 

There you go, kids.  I have imparted my knowledge/opinion/bias/ramblings onto you.  Ah, you’re welcome!