First Team to 24 Wins

by John Don with research by The Diesel, '79

Although neither Michigan nor Notre Dame is the other school’s biggest rival on the schedule (those distinctions belong to USC and Ohio State respectively), this matchup has actually remained just that: a rivalry. While The Vest has clearly owned Michigan the last several years and we all know how that other “rivalry” has worked out since Ty took the reins, the game between the two winningest programs in college football history has remained competitive. Over the past ten years, both teams are 5-5; here’s what the scoreboard looked like at the end of each of those contests:

Michigan Notre Dame

1997 21 14

1998 20 36

1999 26 22

2002 23 25

2003 38 0

2004 20 28

2005 10 17

2006 47 21

2007 38 0

2008 17 35

Incredibly, despite a few lopsided victories on each end, an average game between these two teams is essentially a draw: Michigan’s median point total over the past ten meetings is 22, the Irish – 21.5. But when Michigan wins they do it by scoring, which I find surprising with Lloyd Carr at the helm for every U of M win in the data set; Michigan’s median point total in wins is a whopping 38, while in losses their median point total is only 20. As for ND, we “average” 28 points in wins and only 14 points in losses. This is where the Diesel put in some expert Excel work (you would have thought he had Mike Morris, too). Here are some interesting stats:

Michigan Notre Dame
Lowest Point Total in a Win 21 17
Highest Point Total in a Loss 23 22

And when scoring at least 24 points, both teams are 4-0; 24 is clearly the magic number and not just to Jack Bauer: the first team to score 24 wins. In my opinion both teams may get to that plateau this weekend with two offensive coaches and two (possibly) suspect defenses. But as the data suggests, hitting that magic number is the key to victory.

The home team has dominated in recent memory, with each team only winning once on the road (Notre Dame in Charlie’s Ann Arbor debut in 2005, Michigan in 2006 ending Irish “title hopes”). And the last time an unranked Michigan team hosted a ranked Notre Dame team was in 1985, when the Wolverines pulled out a 20-12 victory.

Yet despite clear data to the contrary, my (homer) pick is Notre Dame – 31, Michigan – 20. But to win this game, we’ll have to rely on the golden arm of the golden boy. And a few big catches by Michael Floyd wouldn’t hurt either…